Does Financial Development Lead to Poverty Reduction in China? Time Series Evidence

Ho, Sin-Yu and Njindan Iyke, Bernard (2017): Does Financial Development Lead to Poverty Reduction in China? Time Series Evidence. Forthcoming in: Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies , Vol. 9, No. 1 (2017)

Abstract

The impact of financial development on poverty reduction has received attention in the literature recently. While the connection between financial development and poverty may appear straight forward in theory, in empirics it may be much complicated. This study attempted at empirically assessing the causal links between financial development and poverty reduction in China for the period 1985–2014. The study used the Toda-Yamamoto causality test to avoid pretesting bias that has featured majority of the existing studies. The study utilized two standard proxies for financial development, namely: the domestic private credit by banks as percentage of GDP, and money supply (M2) as percentage of GDP; and a standard proxy for poverty reduction namely: the household final consumption expenditure per capita growth (annual percentage). The study found a bidirectional causal flow between financial development and poverty reduction, implying that the causal flow between these important variables is independent of the proxy for financial development. This means that financial sector reforms and poverty reduction programmes are more of “win-win” strategies in the case of China. Therefore policymakers in China should continue to implement robust financial sector reforms and poverty reduction strategies.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Financial Development; Poverty Reduction; Toda-Yamamoto Test; China
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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