Predicting CPI in France

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Predicting CPI in France.

Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on CPI in France from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the F series is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 0) model for predicting CPI in France. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented model is stable and acceptable for predicting CPI in France. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in France is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory in the next ten years. The study encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in France.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: France; Forecasting; Inflation
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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