Modeling and forecasting CPI in Mauritius

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Modeling and forecasting CPI in Mauritius.

Abstract

This paper uses annual time series data on CPI in Mauritius from 1963 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the Z series is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 3) model for predicting CPI in Mauritius. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for predicting CPI in Mauritius. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in Mauritius is likely to continue on a very sharp upwards trajectory in the next decade. The study basically encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in Mauritius.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; Inflation; Mauritius
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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