Uncovering inflation dynamics in Morocco: An ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Uncovering inflation dynamics in Morocco: An ARIMA approach.

Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Morocco from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that M is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable in forecasting inflation in Morocco. The results of the study apparently show that M will be hovering somewhere around 1.1% over the next decade. Policy makers and the business community in Morocco are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; inflation; Morocco
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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