Modeling and forecasting inflation in Tanzania using ARIMA models

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Modeling and forecasting inflation in Tanzania using ARIMA models.

Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Tanzania from 1966 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the T series is I (1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model for predicting inflation in Tanzania. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in Tanzania. The results of the study apparently show that inflation in Tanzania is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory in the next decade. The study basically encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in Tanzania.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; inflation; Tanzania
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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