Will the United States of America (USA) be a beneficiary of the Alburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecies? Recent insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Will the United States of America (USA) be a beneficiary of the Alburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecies? Recent insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach.

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in the USA from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach. Diagnostic tests show that USA annual total population data is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 3) model. The diagnostic tests indicate that the presented model is very stable and quite suitable. The results of the study reveal that total population in USA will continue to sharply rise in the next three decades. Considering a highly educated labor force, coupled with latest technological advancements, USA is likely to be one of the first beneficiaries of the Ahlburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecies. In order to stay in the realm of the aforementioned prophecies, USA should take note of the 3-fold policy recommendations put forward.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; population; USA
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

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