Forecasting travel time variability

Eliasson, Jonas (2009): Forecasting travel time variability.

Abstract

In order to incorporate travel time variability in appraisal, methods are needed to predict effects on travel time variability of investments and polity measures. The present study is a first step towards developing such a method. Using data from Stockholm’s automatic camera system for travel time measurements, a relationship is estimated between the standard deviation, the congestion level and various link characteristics. The relationship has been used in a cost-benefit analysis of the planned Stockholm bypass, yielding added benefits of around 15% of the conventional travel time benefits. Moreover, it is shown that that the travel time distribution tends to be less skewed for higher congestion levels, and that the covariance between adjacent links seems to be relatively small. The latter results is important since it makes it possible to approximate route variances as the sum of link variances.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Travel time variability; reliability; congestion; travel time uncertainty; delays; appraisal
• Subjects: R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Economics > R41 - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion ; Travel Time ; Safety and Accidents ; Transportation Noise; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Economics > R42 - Government and Private Investment Analysis ; Road Maintenance ; Transportation Planning

References

Bates, J., Black, I., Fearon, J., Gilliam, C., and Porter, S. (2002) Supply models for use in modeling the variability of journey times on the highway network. Presented at the European Transport Conference, 2003.

Bates, J., Fearon, J. and Black, I. (2004) Frameworks for Modeling the Variability of Journey Times on the Highway Network. Department of Transport, UK.

Bates, J., J. Polak, P. Jones, A. Cook (2001) The valuation of reliability for personal travel. Transportation Research E 37, 191-229.

Börjesson, M. (2006) Departure time modeling: applicability and travel time uncertainty. PhD Thesis, KTH, Stockholm.

Department for Transport (2009) The Reliability Sub-Objective: TAG Unit 3.5.7. Available at http://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/docs/expert/economy-objective/3.5.7.pdf.

Eliasson, J. (2004) Car drivers’ valuations of travel time variability, unexpected delays and queue driving. Presented at the European Transport Conference, 2004.

Fosgerau, M. (2008) On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand. Working paper, available at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11994/.

Fosgerau and Karlström (2009) The value of reliability. Transportation Research B, in press. doi:10.1016/j.trb.2009.05.002.

Hamer, R., de Jong, G., Kroes, E. and Warffemius, P. (2005) The value of reliability in transport. Provisional values for the Netherlands based on experts’ opinion. RAND Europe.

Hollander, Y. (2005) The attitudes of bus users to travel time variability. Presented at the European Transport Conference, 2005.

Kouwenhoven, M., Schoemakers, A., van Grol, R., and Kroes, E. (2005) Development of a tool to assess the reliability of Dutch road networks. Presented at the European Transport Conference, 2005.

Noland, R. B. and Polak, J. W. (2002), Travel Time Variability: A Review of Theoretical and Empirical Issues, Transport Reviews 22, 39-54.

Noland, R.B., Small, K. (1995) Travel time uncertainty, departure time and the cost of the morning commute. 74th meeting of the TRB.

Small, K. (1982) The scheduling of consumer activities: work trips. American Economic Review 72, 172-181.

van Amelsfort, D.H. (2005) Valuation of uncertainty in travel time and arrival time: some findings from a choice experiment. Presented at the European Transport Conference, 2005.

Vickrey, W.S., (1969) Congestion theory and transport investment. American Economic Review 59, 251-260.