Insulating property of the flexible exchange rate regime: A case of Central and Eastern European countries

Dąbrowski, Marek A. and Wróblewska, Justyna (2019): Insulating property of the flexible exchange rate regime: A case of Central and Eastern European countries.

Abstract

We examine the insulating property of flexible exchange rate in CEE economies using the fact that they have adopted different regimes. A set of Bayesian structural VAR models with common serial correlations is estimated on data spanning 1998q1-2015q4. The long-term identifying restrictions are derived from a macroeconomic model. We find that irrespective of the exchange rate regime output is driven mainly by real shocks. Its reactions to these shocks, however, are substantially stronger under less flexible regimes, whereas the responses to nominal shocks are similar. Hence, the insulating property of flexible regimes can reduce the costs from economic shocks.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: open economy macroeconomics; exchange rate regimes; real and nominal shocks; Bayesian structural VAR; common serial correlation
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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