Using crypto assets pricing methods to build technical oscillators for short-term bitcoin trading

Yang, Zixiu and Fantazzini, Dean (2022): Using crypto assets pricing methods to build technical oscillators for short-term bitcoin trading. Forthcoming in: Information

Abstract

This paper examines the trading performances of several technical oscillators created using crypto assets pricing methods for short-term bitcoin trading. Seven pricing models proposed in the professional and academic literature were transformed into oscillators, and two thresholds were introduced to create buy and sell signals. The empirical back testing analysis showed that some of these methods proved to be profitable with good Sharpe ratios and limited max drawdowns. However, the trading performances of almost all methods significantly worsened after 2017, thus indirectly confirming an increasing financial literature that showed that the introduction of bitcoin futures in 2017 improved the efficiency of bitcoin markets.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: C32, C51; C53; C58; G11; G12; G17
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C58 - Financial Econometrics; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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