Causal Relationship Between Exports and Agricultural GDP in Pakistan

Memon, Manzoor Hussain and Baig, Waqar Saleem and Ali, Muhammad (2008): Causal Relationship Between Exports and Agricultural GDP in Pakistan.

Abstract

This paper is an attempt to investigate the causal relationships among agriculture and exports in Pakistan by using time series data for the period between 1971 and 2007. There are several efforts reflecting greater interest in exploring the possible relation between the international trade and economic growth. Increasing of Gross Domestic Product is the main target of almost every economy. Promoting exports of the country is one of the ways of achieving economic growth. Pakistan is among the developing countries, emphasizing to boost its exports since its inception. The major share of Pakistan’s export has strong backward linkages with the agricultural sector both in terms of primary and value added commodities. The findings have significant implications on Pakistan’s economic policy as both the variables have shown strong long-run relationship. There is also a bi-directional Granger-causality between the total exports and agricultural GDP. However, for short-run, both the variable does not cause each other in either direction.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Causality, Growth, Gross Domestic Product, Agriculture, Exports, Pakistan
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F40 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C50 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q10 - General

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