Naviguer dans les rivalités: perspectives de coexistence entre la CEDEAO et l'AES en Afrique de l'Ouest

Kohnert, Dirk (2024): Naviguer dans les rivalités: perspectives de coexistence entre la CEDEAO et l'AES en Afrique de l'Ouest.

Abstract

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), created in September 2023 by the three military governments of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso as a counterweight to ECOWAS and the post-colonial influence of France and other Western countries, announced the creation of a confederation of its three countries in July 2024. The AES have more in common than the other countries of the Sahel. First, they are the centre of the Sahel and most vulnerable to jihadism. They are also landlocked countries with vast desert areas, making them more vulnerable to climate change. Finally, they are the countries with the highest population growth in the Sahel, with an average of six children per woman. The creation of the AES came amid a decade of escalating unrest in the Sahel, fuelled by the aftermath of the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011. The resulting instability caused rampant arms trafficking and the rise of armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. AES counterinsurgency operations will focus on the Liptako-Gourma region, the vast and porous border area where the three states meet, a borderland notorious for its instability. Previous leaders have often put French interests ahead of those of their own people, allowing the continued exploitation of the region's natural resources, including uranium, gold and manganese, without much benefit to the local population. In the face of critical comments from the AU about the AES countries' exit from ECOWAS, the former rejected any interference in their internal affairs. The AES confederation will expand the operational space of the junta alliance and consolidate its military and economic partnership with Russia and China, as well as Turkey and Iran. However, the AES secession undermines the legitimacy of ECOWAS by hindering regional economic and security integration and further complicating the return to democratization. The confederation will seek to absorb new members such as Chad, Guinea and Sudan to further strengthen its power and legitimacy as an alternative regional bloc. However, a divided Sahel will make tackling regional challenges even more difficult. If the AES were to replace the CFA franc with its own currency, as announced, and other Francophone countries in the UEMOA were to follow suit, this would require a fundamental restructuring of both the UEMOA and ECOWAS and finally also call into question the introduction of the ECO, the new common West African currency, planned for 2027.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Navigating Rivalries: Prospects for Coexistence between ECOWAS and AES in West Africa
• Language: French
• Keywords: Alliance des États du Sahel; Afrique de l'Ouest; Sahel; CEDEAO; UEMOA; Djihadisme; Décolonisation; Nationalisme; Souveraineté; Développement durable; Gouvernance; Franc CFA; Mali; Niger; Burkina Faso; Guinée; Nigeria; France; Russie; Chine
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F35 - Foreign Aid; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F52 - National Security ; Economic Nationalism; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F53 - International Agreements and Observance ; International Organizations; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F54 - Colonialism ; Imperialism ; Postcolonialism; H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H77 - Intergovernmental Relations ; Federalism ; Secession; N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations > N17 - Africa ; Oceania; N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation > N47 - Africa ; Oceania; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O17 - Formal and Informal Sectors ; Shadow Economy ; Institutional Arrangements; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology ; Social and Economic Stratification

References

Abba, Seidik (2024): Chances of ECOWAS-Sahel states mediation minimal (analyst). APA - Dakar (Senegal), 10 July 2024

ActuNiger (2022): Zone des trois frontières : 21 terroristes capturés lors d'une opération menée par la force du G5 Sahel à l'est de la frontière burkinabé. ActuNiger, 4 February 2022

Adechian, Djabar Dine C. (2020): Governance, peace, and security perception index: Methodological aspects and application in the WAEMU member states. Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol. 36, pp. 1-12

Africa Intelligence (2024): Washington watches as Tehran negotiates with Niamey for 300 tonnes of uranium. 30 April 2024

Africa Intelligence (2024a): Abdourahamane Tchiani's junta's IMF operation. 16 July 2024

Agenzia Nova (2024) : Iran negotiates with Niger the purchase of 300 tons of uranium. 2 May 2024

Armstrong, Hannah (2021): Turkey in the Sahel. Africa Portal, South Africa, 16. August 2021

APA-news (2024) : Niamey: Sahel alliance takes shape as junta leaders meet. APA, Niamey (Niger), 6 July 2024

Atchadé, Felix (2024) : Sahel: feu dans le pré carré. La Pensée, 417, 109-118

Bailey, Kingston (2024): Alliance of Sahel States: A New Dawn for Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. The Daily Scrum News, 8 July 2024

Balima, Boureima (2024): Niger and China sign crude oil MOU worth $400 mln, says Niger state TV. Reuters, 13 April 2024

Balima, Sampala (2024): The AES countries’ exit from ECOWAS and the building of regional security. FES, PSCC, Analytical Note No 2, April 2024, pp. 1-6

Cascais, Antonio (2024): Benin gives green light for Niger's oil exports to China. Deutsche Welle (DW), 16 May 2024

Czerep, Jędrzej & Filip Bryjka (2024): Africa Corps - a New Iteration of Russia's Old Military Presence in Africa. Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), 23 May 2024

Coulibaly, Nadoun (2024) : Le départ de l’AES de la Cedeao crée un vent de panique et tend le marché régional. Jeune Afrique, 1 February 2024

Daily News Egypt (2024): Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger forge ‘Alliance of Sahel States’ confederation. 7 July 2024

Dossavi, Ayi Renaud (2024). West Africa Braces for Impact as Sahel States Move to Exit ECOWAS. Togo-First Invest in Togo, 10 July 2024

Fernandez, Alberto M. (2024): Turkey's Syrian Mercenaries Come To The Sahel In Africa. MEMRI Daily Brief No. 600, 17 May 2024

Foreign Affairs Committee (2022): China Regional Snapshot: Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington D.C.: 14 November 2022

Giovalucchi, François & Marc Raffinot (2024). Le Franc CFA, le zébu et la kalachnikov. Questions sur la création d’une monnaie commune au Mali, Burkina Faso et Niger. RePEc Working Papers, DT/2024/05, DIAL, pp.

Glez, Damien (2024) : Le regard de Glez sur les juntes militaires du Sahel qui confirment leur départ de la Cédéao. rfi-culture, 12 July 2024

Grütjen, Klaus (2024): Current developments in West Africa's regional integration: Challenges for the future design of foreign and development policy. IDOS Policy Brief No. 6/2024, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), Bonn, pp. 1-13

Heldt, Alexandra (2024): ECOWAS, AES and the German troop withdrawal. Friedrich-Nauman Foundation, 10 July 2024

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2024): Iran Mali FMs stress promotion of bilateral relations. 5 May 2024

Karr, Liam (2024): Sahelian Juntas vs. ECOWAS. Africa File, ISW-Press, 11 July 2024

Kohnert, Dirk (2023): ECOWAS, once an assertive power in West Africa, reduced to a paper tiger? MPRA WP118192; SSRN WP …..

Kohnert, Dirk (2023): The ethics of African regional and continental integration. JOURNAL OF GLOBAL TRADE, ETHICS AND LAW (JGTEL), Volume 1 Issue 2, 2023, pp. 43-65; revised version of preprint 2019: MPRA WP, No.95562

Kohnert, Dirk (2023a): Does Turkey support development in West Africa? The example of Nigeria, Ghana and Ivory Coast. MPRA WP 117207

Kohnert, Dirk (2023b): Will the UEMOA survive the rise of anti-French sentiment in West Africa? SSOAR WP 88697; MPRA WP 118357

Kohnert, Dirk (2022) : Outside sources of terrorist threats in West Africa. MPRA WP, No. 115338

Kohnert, Dirk (2022a): French domination of markets in Francophone Africa: Post-colonialism at its finest? academia.edu, ResearchGate, MPRA_paper_112024, SSRN WP 4037625

Kohnert, Dirk (2022b): Russia and the rise of Islamic terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa. SSRN No. 4122565

Kohnert, Dirk (2005): Monetary Unions - Dominated by the North? The CFA-Zone and the CMA - On the relevance of rational economic reasoning under African conditions. In: Fritz, Barbara / Metzger, Martina (eds.)(2005): New Issues in Regional Monetary Coordination - Understanding North-South and South-South Arrangements, Palgrave Macmillan, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, pp. 177-187

Kohnert, Dirk (1994) -: "'Wir sind alle abgewertet !' Zur Anpassungskrise von Währung, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft in der CFA-Zone", in: Institut für Afrika-Kunde / Hofmeier, R. (Hrsg.), "Afrika-Jahrbuch - 1993", Leske u. Budrich, Opladen, 1994:35 – 45

Le Monde & AFP (2024): Les juntes sahéliennes dénoncent « une ingérence » de l’Union africaine dans leur crise avec la Cedeao. Le Monde and AFP, 12 July 2024

Le Monde with AFP (2024a): Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali sign 'confederation' treaty marking divorce from West Africa bloc. 6 July 2024

Lob, Eric (2023): Raisi Goes to Africa in Search of Allies for Iran. Stimson, 26 July 2023

Nadieline, Lucien (2016): Le rôle de la CEDEAO dans la résolution des conflits en Afrique de l'Ouest. Centre de ressources virtuel des Rivières du Sud, M.A. thesis, 174 p.

Nyabiage, Jevans (2024): China tipped to keep Mali ties strictly economic as UN peacekeeping mission wraps up. South China Morning Post, 11 February 2024

Oxford Analytica (2024a): Pullout from West Africa's ECOWAS bloc may prove messy. Oxford Analytica, Emerald Expert Briefings, February 5, 2024

Oxford Analytica (2024b): Poverty will impair West African junta coordination. Oxford Analytica, Emerald Expert Briefings, July 5, 2024

Rich, David (2024): Alliance des États du Sahel : que faut-il attendre des médiatieurs de la Cédéao ? France-24, 12. July 2024

Sahelvanguard (2023): Alliance of Sahel States: A Geopolitical Block for Progress. sahelvanguard, Blog, 13 October 2023

Seneplus (2024) : Les défis de l’Alliance des États du Sahel et l’avenir de la libre circulation. Seneplus-international, 8 July 2024

Tapsoba, Tebkieta Alexandra & Dabiré Bonayi Hubert (2022): International Remittances and Development in West Africa: The Case of Burkina Faso. In: Joseph Kofi Teye (ed.): Migration in West Africa. IMISCOE Research Series ((IMIS), Springer, pp. 169-188

Tounkara, Ibrahim (2024): Le Mali, le Niger et le Burkina Faso restent dans l'Uemoa. Deutsche Welle (DW), 31 January 2024

Toure, Jabir (2024) : Alliance des États du Sahel : une nouvelle dynamique de sécurité collective ? HAL-open science, No. 04536109, 11 April 2024, pp. 1-6

Türkiye Today (2024) Malian Army Chief visits Türkiye’s Defense Industries Presidency. Türkiye Today, 25 June 2024

Türkiye Today (2024a): Türkiye to continue fight against terrorism in cooperation with neighbors. Türkiye Today, 18 July 2024

Yabi, Gilles Olakounlé (2010): The role of ECOWAS in managing political crisis and conflict. The Cases of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau. FES Peace and Security Series, Abuja, 2010