Modélisation de la résilience post-cyclonique à Mananjary : Une analyse Probit Multivariée

RAVELOSON, Armel R. and Andrianady, Josué R. and Andrianavony, Kanto J. and RANDRIAMANANTENA, Rija R. and RANDRIAMANANTENA, Avo L. and RANDRIAMIZANA, Junot L. (2024): Modélisation de la résilience post-cyclonique à Mananjary : Une analyse Probit Multivariée.

Abstract

This article analyzes the territorial resilience of the Mananjary district in Madagascar in response to tropical cyclones, focusing on the communes of Tsaravary and Tsarahafatra. The study employs a multivariate Probit model to examine three hypotheses: the relevance of resilience policies, the impact of adaptation strategies on resilience, and the relationship between improved agricultural practices and resilience to cyclones. Data is sourced from surveys of 1,180 households, interviews with local and international institutions, and climatic data related to past cyclones such as Batsirai, Freddy, and Alvaro. Additional funding could enhance this study by expanding the sample size, strengthening data collection, and deepening the analysis. This would also facilitate a more detailed exploration of the long-term impacts of cyclones and broaden the proposed adaptation strategies.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Modeling post-cyclone resilience in Mananjary: A Multivariate Probit Analysis
• Language: French
• Keywords: Resilience, vulnerability, territory, shock, adaptive capacity.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C35 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; H - Public Economics > H8 - Miscellaneous Issues > H84 - Disaster Aid; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O18 - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis ; Housing ; Infrastructure; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q58 - Government Policy; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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