Nonlinear inflation expectations and endogenous fluctuations

Gomes, Orlando (2006): Nonlinear inflation expectations and endogenous fluctuations.

Abstract

The standard new Keynesian monetary policy problem is, in its original presentation, a linear model. As a result, only three possibilities are admissible in terms of long term dynamics: the equilibrium may be a stable node, an unstable node or a saddle point. Fixed point stability (a stable node) is generally guaranteed only under an active monetary policy rule. The benchmark model also considers extremely simple assumptions about expectations (perfect foresight is frequently assumed). In this paper, one inquires how a change in the way inflation expectations are modelled implies a change in monetary policy results when an active Taylor rule is taken. By assuming that inflation expectations are constrained by the evolution of the output gap, we radically modify the implications of policy intervention: endogenous cycles, of various periodicities, and chaotic motion will be observable for reasonable parameter values.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: Escola Superior de Comunicação Social - Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa
• Language: English
• Keywords: Monetary policy; Taylor rule; Inflation expectations; Endogenous business cycles; Nonlinear dynamics and chaos
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles

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