Trade sustainability impact assessment (SIA) on the comprehensive economic and trade agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada: Final report

Kirkpatrick, Colin and Raihan, Selim and Bleser, Adam and Prud'homme, Dan and Mayrand, Karel and Morin, Jean Frederic and Pollitt, Hector and Hinojosa, Leonith and Williams, Michael (2011): Trade sustainability impact assessment (SIA) on the comprehensive economic and trade agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada: Final report. Published in: European Commission Trade Assessments (September 2011)

Abstract

Commissioned by the European Commission, the Final Report for the EU-Canada Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) on the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of trade liberalisation under CETA. The analysis assesses the economic, social and environmental impacts in Canada and the European Union in three main sectors, sixteen sub-sectors and across seven cross-cutting issues.

It predicts a number of macro-economic and sector-specific impacts. The macro analysis suggests the EU may see increases in real GDP of 0.02-0.03% in the long-term from CETA, whereas Canada may see increases of 0.18-0.36%. The Investment section of the report suggests these numbers could be higher when factoring in investment increases. At the sectoral level, the study predicts the greatest gains in output and trade to be stimulated by services liberalisation and by the removal of tariffs applied on sensitive agricultural products. It also suggests CETA could have a positive social impact if it includes provisions on the ILO’s Core Labour Standards and Decent Work Agenda.

The study also details a variety of impacts in various “cross-cutting” components of CETA. It finds CETA would stimulate investment in Canada, and to a lesser extent in the EU; and finds costs outweigh the benefits of including controversial NAFTA-style investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions in CETA. It predicts potentially imbalanced benefits from a government procurement (GP) chapter. The study assumes CETA will lead to an upward harmonisation in intellectual property rights (IPR) regulations, particularly in Canada, which will have a number of effects. It predicts some notable impacts in terms of competition policy, as well as trade facilitation, free circulation of goods and labour mobility.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: EU-Canada Sustainability Impact Assessment; SIA; EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement; Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement; CETA; government procurement; investor-state provisions; ISDS; competition policy; Dan Prud'homme; trade impact assessment
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; L - Industrial Organization > L6 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing > L62 - Automobiles ; Other Transportation Equipment ; Related Parts and Equipment; H - Public Economics > H4 - Publicly Provided Goods > H41 - Public Goods; K - Law and Economics > K2 - Regulation and Business Law > K21 - Antitrust Law; D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models; P - Economic Systems > P4 - Other Economic Systems > P48 - Political Economy ; Legal Institutions ; Property Rights ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Regional Studies; K - Law and Economics > K1 - Basic Areas of Law > K11 - Property Law; H - Public Economics > H4 - Publicly Provided Goods > H42 - Publicly Provided Private Goods; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H70 - General; K - Law and Economics > K3 - Other Substantive Areas of Law > K33 - International Law; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O51 - U.S. ; Canada; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H57 - Procurement; L - Industrial Organization > L6 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing > L67 - Other Consumer Nondurables: Clothing, Textiles, Shoes, and Leather Goods; Household Goods; Sports Equipment; K - Law and Economics > K0 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O34 - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O24 - Trade Policy ; Factor Movement Policy ; Foreign Exchange Policy; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F19 - Other; H - Public Economics > H8 - Miscellaneous Issues > H82 - Governmental Property; L - Industrial Organization > L6 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing > L69 - Other; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F18 - Trade and Environment; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O52 - Europe; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology > B41 - Economic Methodology; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q58 - Government Policy

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