Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Cycles of violence, and attacks index for the State of Florida

Gómez-sorzano, Gustavo (2007): Cycles of violence, and attacks index for the State of Florida.


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I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder of Florida State (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincide with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder shows that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have affected Florida, creating estimated turning point dates marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation: the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001 This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Florida. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S., New York State, New York City, Arizona State, Massachusetts State, California, Washington, Ohio, Philadelphia City,, Arkansas These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.

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