Crecimiento del crédito en Nicaragua, ¿Crecimiento natural o boom crediticio?

Urbina, Jilber (2016): Crecimiento del crédito en Nicaragua, ¿Crecimiento natural o boom crediticio? Published in: Revista de Economía y Finanzas , Vol. III, (November 2016): pp. 91-110.

Abstract

Credit boom, defined as an excess of lending above its long-run trend, is an important financial phenomenon to be considered when designing a set of early warning systems indicators to detect financial crisis in order either to avoid it or to lessen its impact. This paper presents an analysis of the credit evolution in Nicaragua focusing on detecting the existence of credit boom during 1995-2014. Our results support the hypothesis of no credit boom during the period under study; instead, we find evidence in favor that credit is growing in line with the economic growth, therefore, credit boom may not be consider as an input to be included in the set of early warning indicators for financial crisis detection.

El boom de crédito, definido como un exceso de crédito sobre su tendencia de largo plazo, es un fenómeno de importancia para la creación de indicadores de detección temprana de crisis financiera, que permitan evitarla o aminorar su impacto. En esta investigación se presenta un análisis de la evolución del crédito en Nicaragua enfocado en la detección de boom crediticio para el periodo 1995-2014. Los resultados indican que, durante el periodo en estudio no ha habido boom de crédito; en su lugar, el sostenido crecimiento del crédito está en línea con el crecimiento de la economía, de esto se destaca que para diseñar indicadores para la detección temprana de crisis financiera, se deben considerar factores distintos a los posibles excesos de crédito.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Credit growth in Nicaragua: Natural growth or credit boom?
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Credit boom, trend, cycle, potencial growth. Boom de crédito, tendencia, ciclo, crecimiento potencial.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers

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