Sucarrat, Genaro and Grønneberg, Steffen (2016): Models of Financial Return With TimeVarying Zero Probability.
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Abstract
The probability of an observed financial return being equal to zero is not necessarily zero. This can be due to price discreteness or rounding error, liquidity issues (e.g. low trading volume), market closures, data issues (e.g. data imputation due to missing values), characteristics specific to the market, and so on. Moreover, the zero probability may change and depend on market conditions. In standard models of return volatility, however, e.g. ARCH, SV and continuous time models, the zero probability is zero, constant or both. We propose a new class of models that allows for a timevarying zero probability, and which can be combined with standard models of return volatility: They are nested and obtained as special cases when the zero probability is constant and equal to zero. Another attraction is that the return properties of the new class (e.g. volatility, skewness, kurtosis, ValueatRisk, Expected Shortfall) are obtained as functions of the underlying volatility model. The new class allows for autoregressive conditional dynamics in both the zero probability and volatility specifications, and for additional covariates. Simulations show parameter and risk estimates are biased if zeros are not appropriately handled, and an application illustrates that riskestimates can be substantially biased in practice if the timevarying zero probability is not accommodated.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Models of Financial Return With TimeVarying Zero Probability 
English Title:  Models of Financial Return With TimeVarying Zero Probability 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  Financial return, volatility, zeroinflated return, GARCH, logGARCH, ACL 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0  General > C01  Econometrics C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2  Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22  TimeSeries Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3  Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32  TimeSeries Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5  Econometric Modeling > C51  Model Construction and Estimation C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5  Econometric Modeling > C52  Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5  Econometric Modeling > C58  Financial Econometrics 
Item ID:  77264 
Depositing User:  Dr. Genaro Sucarrat 
Date Deposited:  04 Mar 2017 09:08 
Last Modified:  04 Mar 2017 09:09 
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URI:  https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/77264 
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Models of Financial Return With TimeVarying Zero Probability. (deposited 21 Jan 2016 14:32)
 Models of Financial Return With TimeVarying Zero Probability. (deposited 04 Mar 2017 09:08) [Currently Displayed]