ARFIMAX and ARFIMAX-TARCH Realized Volatility Modeling

Degiannakis, Stavros (2008): ARFIMAX and ARFIMAX-TARCH Realized Volatility Modeling. Published in: Journal of Applied Statistics , Vol. 10, No. 35 (2008): pp. 1169-1180.

Abstract

ARFIMAX models are applied in estimating the intra-day realized volatility of the CAC40 and DAX30 indices. Volatility clustering and asymmetry characterize the logarithmic realized volatility of both indices. ARFIMAX model with time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity is the best performing specification and, at least in the case of DAX30, provides statistically superior next trading day’s realized volatility forecasts.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: ARFIMAX, Realized Volatility, TARCH, Volatility Forecasting.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G15 - International Financial Markets

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