SPEC Model Selection Algorithm for ARCH Models: an Options Pricing Evaluation Framework

Degiannakis, Stavros and Xekalaki, Evdokia (2008): SPEC Model Selection Algorithm for ARCH Models: an Options Pricing Evaluation Framework. Published in: Applied Financial Economics Letters , Vol. 6, No. 4 (2008): pp. 419-423.

Abstract

A number of single ARCH model-based methods of predicting volatility are compared to Degiannakis and Xekalaki’s (2005) poly-model SPEC algorithm method in terms of profits from trading actual options of the S&P500 index returns. The results show that traders using the standardized prediction error criterion (SPEC) for deciding which model’s forecasts to use at any given point in time achieve the highest profits.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: ARCH models, Model selection, SPEC
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C40 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

References

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