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Simulated Evidence on the Distribution of the Standardized One-Step-Ahead Prediction Errors in ARCH Processes

Degiannakis, Stavros and Xekalaki, Evdokia (2007): Simulated Evidence on the Distribution of the Standardized One-Step-Ahead Prediction Errors in ARCH Processes. Published in: Applied Financial Economics Letters No. 3 (2007): pp. 31-37.

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Abstract

In statistical modeling contexts, the use of one-step-ahead prediction errors for testing hypotheses on the forecasting ability of an assumed model has been widely considered. Quite often, the testing procedure requires independence in a sequence of recursive standardized prediction errors, which cannot always be readily deduced particularly in the case of econometric modeling. In this paper, the results of a series of Monte Carlo simulations reveal that independence can be assumed to hold.

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