Using full limit order book for price jump prediction

Mynbaev, Kairat (2020): Using full limit order book for price jump prediction. Published in: Kazakh Mathematical Journal , Vol. 20, No. 2 (June 2020): pp. 44-53.

Abstract

Institutional investors, especially high frequency traders, employ the order information contained in the Limit Order Book (LOB). The main purpose of the paper is to investigate how full information about the LOB can help in predicting the price jump. Normally, a full LOB contains total volumes of orders for hundreds of prices. Using the full information runs into the curse of dimensionality which manifests itself in multicollinearity, insignificant coefficients, inflated estimate variances and high computation time. Due to these problems, order volumes for prices that are distant from ask and bid prices are usually not used in prediction procedures. For this reason we call such information a silent crowd. Here we propose a summary measure of the silent crowd and quantify its influence on trade jump prediction. We use a realistically simulated LOB as a vehicle for experiments and logistic regression as the prediction tool. The full code in Matlab includes 18 blocks.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Simulation, trade jump prediction, high frequency trading, logistic regression, limit order book
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions ; Probabilities; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates

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