Leaning against the bubble. Can theoretical models match the empirical evidence?

Ciccarone, Giuseppe and Giuli, Francesco and Marchetti, Enrico and Tancioni, Massimiliano (2020): Leaning against the bubble. Can theoretical models match the empirical evidence?

Abstract

By estimating a Markov-switching model, we provide new evidence on the nonlinear effects of monetary policy shocks on asset prices and on their bubble component. We show that regime-dependence is mainly driven by the states affecting the interest rate equation. We also show that, following a positive interest rate shock, an OLG model of asset price bubbles with credit frictions and sticky prices may predict an increase in the real rate, a recession/deflation and an increase in the bubble value. This result, which is new to the theoretical literature, matches both the previously existing and our empirical evidence.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Asset price bubbles; monetary policy; overlapping generations models.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E13 - Neoclassical; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates

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