Machine Learning in U.S. Bank Merger Prediction: A Text-Based Approach

Katsafados, Apostolos G. and Leledakis, George N. and Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G. and Androutsopoulos, Ion and Fergadiotis, Manos (2021): Machine Learning in U.S. Bank Merger Prediction: A Text-Based Approach.

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of textual information in a U.S. bank merger prediction task. Our intuition behind this approach is that text could reduce bank opacity and allow us to understand better the strategic options of banking firms. We retrieve textual information from bank annual reports using a sample of 9,207 U.S. bank-year observations during the period 1994-2016. To predict bidders and targets, we use textual information along with financial variables as inputs to several machine learning models. Our key findings suggest that: (1) when textual information is used as a single type of input, the predictive accuracy of our models is similar, or even better, compared to the models using only financial variables as inputs, and (2) when we jointly use textual information and financial variables as inputs, the predictive accuracy of our models is substantially improved compared to models using a single type of input. Therefore, our findings highlight the importance of textual information in a bank merger prediction task.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Bank merger prediction; Textual analysis; Natural language processing; Machine learning
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C38 - Classification Methods ; Cluster Analysis ; Principal Components ; Factor Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C45 - Neural Networks and Related Topics; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G34 - Mergers ; Acquisitions ; Restructuring ; Corporate Governance

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