Эконометрический анализ факторов банкротств российских компаний в обрабатывающем секторе

Bekirova, Olga and Zubarev, Andrey (2022): Эконометрический анализ факторов банкротств российских компаний в обрабатывающем секторе.

Abstract

This work is devoted to the analysis of the factors influencing the bankruptcy of the Russian manufacturing industry companies for the period from 2012 to 2020. Logistic regression was used as an econometric tool for the modelling the probability of companies’ default. According to the results, financial indicators of profitability, liquidity and business activity play a significant role in explaining the probability of default of Russian manufacturing companies. Special attention was paid to the impact on the probability of bankruptcy of corporate governance and ownership structure factors. First, including these indicators into the model led to an increase in its predictive power. Secondly, CEO-duality increases the stability of the company, and too high maximum share of ownership increases the likelihood of bankruptcy.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Econometric Analysis of Bankruptcy Factors for Russian Companies in the Manufacturing Industry
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: probability of default; logistic regression; corporate governance
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions ; Probabilities; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G32 - Financing Policy ; Financial Risk and Risk Management ; Capital and Ownership Structure ; Value of Firms ; Goodwill; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G33 - Bankruptcy ; Liquidation; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G34 - Mergers ; Acquisitions ; Restructuring ; Corporate Governance; L - Industrial Organization > L6 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing > L60 - General

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