Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and the Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours

Kuang, Pei and Luca, Davide and Wei, Zhiwu (2025): Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and the Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours.

Abstract

Does political polarisation influence actual economic behaviours? Using British nationally representative surveys and administrative data, we document how the Brexit referendum triggered stark divergences in individual micro and macro expectations between Leave and Remain supporters. Compared to existing research, we show how these polarising effects were driven by a specific policy issue and mostly unrelated to traditional partisan identities. We also demonstrate how these diverging beliefs influenced major real financial decisions. Leavers became more likely to purchase durable goods and engage in housing transactions, and areas with higher proportions of Leave voters experienced increased housing transaction volumes and rising prices.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Political Polarisation, Brexit, Expectations, Spending Intentions, Housing Transactions
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E03 - Behavioral Macroeconomics; H - Public Economics > H0 - General > H00 - General; H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H77 - Intergovernmental Relations ; Federalism ; Secession; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets

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