Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy:Structural and Statistical Approaches

Haider, Adnan and Safdar Ullah, Khan (2008): Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy:Structural and Statistical Approaches. Published in: SBP Research Bulletin , Vol. 4, No. 1 (15 October 2008): pp. 31-60.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate potential output vis-à-vis output gap for Pakistan’s economy. This paper reviews six commonly used techniques to estimate potential output and from that the output gap. The results suggest that while measures of output gap are not identical they nonetheless do show some degree of association among each other. Therefore, a composite output gap is calculated for 1950 to 2007. The composite output gap depicts that Pakistan economy has been observing a cyclical episode of periods of excess supply followed by excess demand in the period of analysis. Furthermore, evidence suggests that Pakistan economy is currently experiencing rising demand pressures since FY05. These demand pressures show a high degree of correlation with the rising inflation as shown in the temporal correlation between inflation and composite of output gap measures.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: gross domestic product, potential output, output gap
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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