Emissions and abatement costs for the passenger cars sector in Greece

Halkos, George and Kevork, Ilias and Tziourtzioumis, Chris (2014): Emissions and abatement costs for the passenger cars sector in Greece.

Abstract

In this paper we present for Greece a methodology for predicting emissions and estimating the abatement costs of the transport sector, focusing our analysis on passenger cars. In the first section we estimate for the period 2000-2030 the annual emissions of the most important pollutants using the Tier 2 method. For the application of this method, we forecast the number of passenger cars and the annual average distance driven per car technology, fuel type and displacement category. In particular, the forecasts for the number of cars are obtained by fitting trend and double exponential smoothing models to the available data from 2000 to 2013. Necessary adjustments to the number of cars of the latest technologies are made for each year such that the sum of predictions equals to the estimated total number of cars obtained through an econometric model that relates the changes in the number of cars and the changes in GDP (at current prices). In the second part of the study we estimate the total pollution cost at 2013 prices for four alternative scenarios, where for each scenario we assume changes for the period 2013-2030 to the composition of the fleet of passenger cars for the benefit of either gasoline or diesel or hybrids or LPG cars. The costs analyzed are capital, operation and maintenance and fuel.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Transport sector; passenger cars; tier 2 method; abatement costs; emissions.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M2 - Business Economics > M21 - Business Economics; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q50 - General; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q53 - Air Pollution ; Water Pollution ; Noise ; Hazardous Waste ; Solid Waste ; Recycling; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q58 - Government Policy; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Economics > R40 - General

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