La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993-2012

Barrera-Chaupis, Carlos (2014): La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993-2012.

Abstract

We search for evidence against the hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between inflation and growth rates for 1993-2012 Peruvian data. A family of dichotomous models provide the way to model the relationship between the those two variables' cycles. Given the acceleration/de-acceleration phases' persistence, we estimate auto-regressive uni-variate logit models as well as both static and auto-regressive bi-variate probit models. The results suggest the existence of an stochastic relationship between the discrete cycles of inflation and growth rates.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The relationship between inflation's and growth's discrete cycles: Peru 1993-2012
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: time series models, discrete regression, logit model, construction and evaluation of models, prediction, business fluctuations
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions ; Probabilities; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles

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