Government Debt and its Macroeconomic Determinants – An Empirical Investigation

Swamy, Vighneswara (2015): Government Debt and its Macroeconomic Determinants – An Empirical Investigation.

Abstract

In the context of rising government debt levels in advanced economies and the ongoing euro zone debt crisis, there has been a revival of academic and policy debate on the impact of growing government debt on economic growth. This data-rich study offers an econometric investigation of the macroeconomic determinants of government debt and answers the much-debated question – What factors influence the government debt in a sovereign country? The study provides analyses for economy groupings, political governance groupings and income groupings of countries in addition to the full sample. Panel Granger causality testing is employed to establish causality running from the determinants of debt. The results of the full sample analysis reveal that real GDP growth, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, inflation and population growth have negative effect on debt. Gross fixed capital formation, final consumption expenditure, and trade openness have positive effect on debt. The results for different country groupings bring out some interesting implications.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Government Debt, economic growth, panel data, nonlinearity, country groupings
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C36 - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O50 - General

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