Statistical Time Series Analysis of Emission and Deposition of SO2 and NOx in Northeastern North America

Mariam, Yohannes and Barre, Mike (1997): Statistical Time Series Analysis of Emission and Deposition of SO2 and NOx in Northeastern North America.

Abstract

Trend analysis and forecasting of time series data on air-pollutants is important to design effective measures to minimize damages to ecosystems and human health. In this study, autoregressive, moving average, autoregressive-moving average and autoregressive integrated moving average processes of different order were implemented to examine patterns of depositions and emissions. Analysis was undertaken to examine stationarity of the series or to design a method to create stationary series. The model that satisfied selected statistical criteria was chosen to make forecasts. Forecasts of depositions were compared with critical loads by watersheds.

The findings of this study indicated that both wet depositions and emissions of SO2 and NOx data exhibited non-stationarity. After removing non-stationarity, suitable time-series model was selected for short-run forecasting (1994 to 2005). The resulting depositions and emissions data were examined with respect to their long-run movement and critical deposition loadings. The analysis showed that excess wet depositions of SO2 and NO3 would be major problems at least for ten years. Most of these problems are observed in Atlantic Canada and few watersheds in Quebec and Ontario. Although emissions of SO2 have declined, emissions of NOx remained unchanged or increased compared to the 1980 level. Considering the fact that these pollutants contribute to acidification, eutrophication and formation of secondary particulates that are hazardous to human health, it is necessary to find ways of further reducing emissions and depositions of these pollutants. While substantial progress has been made with respect to reduction of SO2 emissions (especially in Canada), the analysis presented in this study indicated that there must be substantially more reductions to ensure the protection of sensitive ecosystems. Thus, evidences similar to those presented in this study should be gathered to initiate negotiations for reductions beyond the 2005 or 2010 commitments.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Trend analysis; forecasting; air-pollutants; ecosystems; human health; autoregressive; moving average; autoregressive-moving average; autoregressive integrated moving average processes; depositions; emissions; SO2 ; NOx ; Canada
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q57 - Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services ; Biodiversity Conservation ; Bioeconomics ; Industrial Ecology; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q58 - Government Policy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q53 - Air Pollution ; Water Pollution ; Noise ; Hazardous Waste ; Solid Waste ; Recycling; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q52 - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs ; Distributional Effects ; Employment Effects; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods

References

Air Quality Committee. Canada-United States Air Quality Agreement. Progress Report, 1996. Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. Econometrica, 1987, 55, 251-276. Environment Canada. The 1990 Canadian Long-Range Transport of Air Pollutants & Acid Deposition Assessment report: Part 1, Executive Summary; & Part 4, Aquatic Effects, 1990. Environment Canada. Working paper for proposed SO2 Emission Trading Zones in Eastern Canada. May, 1993. Environment Canada. The NEIPTG Consensus National Base Case Forecast, March, Ottawa, 1996. Granger, C.W.J, and Newbold, P. Forecasting Economic Time Series; Academic Press, Inc., 1986 Jefferies, D.S. Fresh Water Acidification in Canada Caused by Atmospheric deposition of Nitrogen Pollutants: A Preliminary Assessment of Existing Information. NWRI. February, 1995. Johansen, S. In Time series models in econometrics, finance and other fields; Cox, D.R., Hinkley, D.V. and Barndorf-nielsen, O.E. Ed.; 1996. OECD. OECD Environmental data (1995 Compendium).Paris, 1995. Pindyck, R.S. and Rubinfeld, D.L. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. McGraw-Hill Book ,Company. New York, 1981. QMS, Eviews: User’s Guide, Qunatitative Micro Software, 1995. SPSS, Inc. Advanced Statistics. User’s manual and Trends, 1996.