Global financial crisis and dependence risk analysis of sector portfolios: a vine copula approach

Arreola Hernandez, Jose and Hammoudeh, Shawkat and Nguyen, Duc Khuong and Al Janabi, Mazin A. M. and Reboredo, Juan Carlos (2014): Global financial crisis and dependence risk analysis of sector portfolios: a vine copula approach.

Abstract

We use regular vine (r-vine), canonical vine (c-vine) and drawable vine (d-vine) copulas to examine the dependence risk characteristics of three 20-stock portfolios from the retail, manufacturing and gold-mining equity sectors of the Australian market in periods before, during and after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Our results indicate that the retail portfolio is less risky than the manufacturing counterpart in the crisis period, while the gold-mining portfolio is less risky than both the retail and manufacturing sector portfolios. Both the retail and gold stocks display a higher propensity to yield positively skewed returns in the crisis periods, contrary to the manufacturing stocks. The r-vine is found to best capture the multivariate dependence structure of the stocks in the retail and gold-mining portfolios, while the d-vine does it for the manufacturing stock portfolio. These findings could be used to develop dependence risk and investment risk-adjusted strategies for investment, rebalancing and hedging which more adequately account for the downside risk in various market conditions.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: vine copulas, risk analysis, dependence structure, retail and manufacturing stocks
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions

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