Predictability and Model Selection in the Context of ARCH Models

Degiannakis, Stavros and Xekalaki, Evdokia (2005): Predictability and Model Selection in the Context of ARCH Models. Published in: Journal of Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry No. 21 (2005): pp. 55-82.

Abstract

Most of the methods used in the ARCH literature for selecting the appropriate model are based on evaluating the ability of the models to describe the data. An alternative model selection approach is examined based on the evaluation of the predictability of the models in terms of standardized prediction errors.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: ARCH models, Model selection, Predictability, Correlated Gamma Ratio distribution, Standardized Prediction Error Criterion
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C46 - Specific Distributions ; Specific Statistics; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods

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