Business Cycles in Economics

Ledenyov, Viktor O. and Ledenyov, Dimitri O. (2018): Business Cycles in Economics.

Abstract

The business cycles are generated by the oscillating macro-/micro-/nano- economic output variables in the economy of the scale and the scope in the amplitude/frequency/phase/time domains in the economics. The accurate forward looking assumptions on the business cycles oscillation dynamics can optimize the financial capital investing and/or borrowing by the economic agents in the capital markets. The book's main objective is to study the business cycles in the economy of the scale and the scope, formulating the Ledenyov unified business cycles theory in the Ledenyov classic and quantum econodynamics.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Business cycles, economic output waves, investment portfolio
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights

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199. Wikipedia 2017 Gross domestic product Wikipedia USA www.wikipedia.org .

200. Coyle D 2014 GDP: A brief but affectionate history Princeton University Press Princeton NJ USA ISBN 978-0-691-15679-8 .

Akamatsu economic cycle theory in economics (selected papers):

201. Akamatsu K March-August 1962 A historical pattern of economic growth in developing countries Journal of Developing Economies 1 (1) pp 3 – 25.

202. Ozawa T 2005 Institutions, industrial upgrading, and economic performance in Japan - The "Flying-Geese" paradigm of catch-up growth Edward Elgar Publishing Northampton Massachusetts USA.

203. Grinin L, Korotayev A, Tausch A 2016 Economic cycles, crises, and the global periphery Springer International Publishing Heidelberg Germany ISBN 978-3-31917780-9 .

Ledenyov economic cycle theory in economics and econodynamics (selected papers):

204. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2015d Information money fields of cyclic oscillations in nonlinear dynamic economic system MPRA Paper no 63565 Munich University Munich Germany, SSRN Paper no SSRN-id2592975 Social Sciences Research Network New York USA pp 1 – 40 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63565/ , http://ssrn.com/abstract=2592975 .

205. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2015e On the spectrum of oscillations in economics MPRA Paper no 64368 Munich University Munich Germany, SSRN Paper no SSRN-id2606209 Social Sciences Research Network New York USA pp 1 – 48 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64368/ , http://ssrn.com/abstract=2606209 .

206. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2015f Digital waves in economics MPRA Paper no 64755 Munich University Munich Germany, SSRN Paper no SSRN-id2613434 Social Sciences Research Network New York USA pp 1 – 55 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64755/ , http://ssrn.com/abstract=2613434 .

207. Ledenyov D O, Ledenyov V O 2016r Precise measurement of macroeconomic variables in time domain using three dimensional wave diagrams MPRA Paper no 69609 Munich University Munich Germany, SSRN Paper no SSRN-id2733607 Social Sciences Research Network New York USA pp 1 – 52 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/69609/ , http://ssrn.com/abstract=2733607 .

208. Ledenyov V O, Ledenyov D O 2016s Forecast in capital markets Lambert Academic Publishing Saarbrücken Germany ISBN 978-3-659-91698-4; MPRA Paper no 72286 Munich University Munich Germany; SSRN Paper no SSRN-id2802085 Social Sciences Research Network New York USA pp 1 – 260 www.lap-publishing.com , www.forecastcapitalmarkets.com , http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72286/ , http://ssrn.com/abstract=2802085 .

209. Ledenyov V O, Ledenyov D O 2017 Investment in capital markets Lambert Academic Publishing Saarbrücken Germany ISBN 978-3-330-05708-1; MPRA Paper no 77414 Munich University Munich Germany; SSRN Paper no SSRN-id2930848 Social Sciences Research Network New York USA pp 1 – 696 www.lap-publishing.com , www.investmentcapitalmarkets.com , http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77414/ , http://ssrn.com/abstract=2930848 .

Economic output waves / business cycles nature, properties, parameters spectral analysis in macroeconomics/econodynamics:

210. Ricardo D 1817, 1821 On the principles of political economy and taxation 3rd edition John Murray Albemarle Street London UK.

211. Juglar C 1862 Des crises commerciales et de leur retour périodique en France en Angleterre et aux États-Unis Guillaumin Paris France.

212. Benner S 1875 Benner’s prophecies of future ups and downs in prices: What years to make money on pig iron, hogs, corn and provisions Robert Clark and Company Cincinnati USA.

213. George H 1881, 2009 Progress and poverty Kegan Paul USA; Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK ISBN 978-1-108-00361-2.

214. Marshall A 1890 Principles of economics Macmillan London UK.

215. Pareto V 1890 Cours d’économie politique Paris France.

216. Walras L 1898 Etudes de’économie politique appliqué Paris France.

217. Wicksell 1898 Geldzins und Güterpreise Germany.

218. Parvus (pseudonym Helphand A) 1901, 1999 The sturm und drang – Period of capital Die Handelskrisis und die Gewerkschaften M Ernst Munich Germany, in Louçã F, Reijnders J (editors) pp 21 – 24.

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220. Tugan-Baranovsky M I 1923 Periodic industrial crises “Book” Publishing House Petrograd-Moscow Russian Federation pp 1 – 386.

221. Spiethoff 1902 Vorbemerkungen zu einer Theorie der Überproduction Jahrbuch für Gestzgebung, Verwaltung und Volkswirtschaft Germany.

222. Schumpeter J A 1908 Das Wesen und der Hauptinhalt der Theorischen Nationalokonomie Duncker und Humblot Leipzig Germany.

223. Schumpeter J A 1911, 1934, 1955 Theory of economic development Harvard University Press Cambridge USA.

224. Schumpeter J A 1917, 1956 Das Sozial Produkt und die Rechenpfennige : Glossen und Beitrage zur Geldtheorie von Heute Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft 44 pp 627 – 715, Money and the social product Marget A W (translator) International Economic Papers 6.

225. Schumpeter J A 1934 The theory of economic development Harvard University Press Cambridge Massachusetts USA.

226. Schumpeter J A 1936 Review of Keynes’ general theory of employment, interest and money Journal of the American Statistical Association pp 791 – 795.

227. Schumpeter J A 1939, 1989 Business cycles: A theoretical and historical and statistical analysis of the capitalist process vols 1-2 McGraw-Hill Book Company Inc New York USA, Porcupine Press Philadelphia USA.

228. Schumpeter J 1945 Capitalism, socialism and democracy Harper New York USA.

229. Schumpeter J A 1952 Ten great economists. From Marx to Keynes George Allen and Unwin London UK.

230. Schumpeter J A 1954 History of economic analysis George Allen and Unwin, Oxford University Press London UK.

231. Schumpeter J A 1961 Konjunkturzyklen Bd 1 Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht Göttingen.

232. Aftalion A 1909 Essai d’une Théorie des crises générales et périodiques Revue d’Economie Politique Paris France.

233. Aftalion A 1913 Les crises périodiques de surproduction M Rivière et Cie Paris France.

234. Mitchell W C 1913 Business cycles University of California Press Berkeley California USA.

235. Mitchell W C 1923, 1951 Business cycles in Business cycles and unemployment National Bureau of Economic Research New York USA ISBN: 0-87014-003-5, in Readings in business cycle theory Blakiston Philadelphia USA pp 43 – 60.

236. Mitchell W C 1923 Competitive illusion as a cause of business cycles Quarterly Journal of Economics 38 pp 631 – 652.

237. Mitchell W C, King W I 1923 The economic losses caused by business cycles in Business cycles and unemployment National Bureau of Economic Research New York USA ISBN: 0-87014-003-5 pp 34 – 42 http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4660 .

238. Mitchell W C 1927 Economic organization and business cycles in Business cycles: The problem and its setting Mitchell W C (editor) National Bureau of Economic Research New York USA ISBN: 0-870-14084-1 pp 61 – 188 http://www.nber.org/chapters/c0681 .

239. Mitchell W C 1927, 1928 Business cycles: The problem and its setting National Bureau of Economic Research New York USA.

240. Mitchell W 1941, 1971 Business cycles and their causes Reprint Series Edition University of California Press Berkeley California USA.

241. Burns A F, Mitchell W C 1946 Measuring business cycles National Bureau of Economic Research New York USA pp 1 – 36.

242. Mitchell W C 1951 What happens during business cycles: A progress report NBER USA pp 6 – 26.

243. Van Gelderen J (alias Fedder J) 1913, 1996 Springvloed: Beschouwingen over industriele ontwikteling en prijsbeweging / Springtide: reflections on industrial development and price movements De Nieuwe Tijd 18 pp 253 – 464, in Freeman Ch (editor) pp 3 – 55.

244. Moore H L 1914, 1967 Economic cycles: Their law and cause, in Reprints of economic classics Augustus M Kelley Publishers New York USA.

245. Persons W M 1914 Books on business cycles: Mitchell, Aftalion, Ilgram The Quarterly Journal of Economics XXVIII 4 pp 795 – 810.

246. Persons W M 1919a An index of general conditions Review of Economic Statistics I pp 11 – 205.

247. Persons W M 1919b General considerations and assumptions The Review of Economics and Statistics I 1 pp 5 – 8.

248. Persons W M 1919c Measurement of secular trend The Review of Economics and Statistics I 1 pp 8 – 18.

249. Persons W M 1919d Measurement of seasonal fluctuations The Review of Economics and Statistics I 1 pp 18 – 31.

250. Persons W M 1919e Measurement of cyclical and irregular fluctuations The Review of Economics and Statistics I 1 pp 31 – 36.

251. Persons W M 1919f Remaining problems of method and interpretation The Review of Economics and Statistics I 1 pp 36 – 37.

252. Persons W M 1919g General considerations relating to secular trend, 1903-1908 The Review of Economics and Statistics I 1 pp 38 – 39.

253. Persons W M 1919h General considerations relating to secular trend, 1903-1908 The Review of Economics and Statistics I 1 pp 38 – 39.

254. Persons W M 1919i Summary of results for each series The Review of Economics and Statistics I 1 pp 39 – 48.

255. Persons W M 1919j I The index: A statement of results The Review of Economics Statistics I 2 pp 111 – 117.

256. Persons W M 1919k IV Application of the method to the data (B) The groups of series The Review of Economics Statistics I 2 pp 182 – 205.

257. Persons W M 1919l The role of prices in the business cycle The Review of Economics Statistics I 2 pp 206 – 210.

258. Persons W M 1921 Bank loans and business cycle The Review of Economics Statistics III 2 pp 30 – 33.

259. Persons W M, Coyle E S 1921 A commodity price index of business cycles The Review of Economics Statistics III 11 pp 353 – 369.

260. Persons W M 1922a An index chart based prices and money rates The Review of Economics Statistics IV 1 pp 7 – 11.

261. Persons W M 1922b The crisis of 1920 in the United States: A quantitative survey The American Economic Review XI 1 pp 5 – 19.

262. Persons W M 1922c An index of British economic conditions: 1903-1914 The Review of Economics Statistics IV 2 pp 157 – 175.

263. Persons W M 1924a Cyclical fluctuations of the ratio of bank loans to deposits, 1827-1924 The Review of Economics Statistics VI 4 pp 260 – 283.

264. Persons W M 1924b Some fundamental concepts of statistics Journal of the American Statistical Association XIX 145 pp 1 – 8.

265. Persons W M 1926 Theories of business fluctuations The Quarterly Journal of Economics XLI 1 pp 94 – 128.

266. Persons W M 1927 An index of general business conditions The Review of Economics Statistics IX 1 pp 20 – 29.

267. Persons W M 1928 Pigou, industrial fluctuations The Quarterly Journal of Economics XLII 4 pp 669 – 677.

268. Kondratieff N D 1922 The world economy and its trends during and after war Regional branch of state publishing house Vologda Russian Federation.

269. Kondratieff N D 1925, 1984 The big cycles of conjuncture The problems of conjuncture 1 (1) pp 28 – 79, The long wave cycle Richardson & Snyder New York USA.

270. Kondratieff N D December 1926, Spring 1979 Die langen Wellen der Konjunktur Archiv fuer Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik 56 (3) pp 573 – 609, Die langen Wellen der Konjunktur Review 2 pp 519 – 562.

271. Kondratieff N D 1928 The big cycles of conjuncture Institute of Economics RANION Moscow Russian Federation.

272. Kondratieff N D, Stolper W F 1935, 1996 The long waves in economic life Review of Economics and Statistics The MIT Press 17 (6) pp 105 – 115 DOI:10.2307/1928486 JSTOR 1928486, in Long wave theory Freeman Ch (editor) Edward Elgar Publishing Cheltenham UK.

273. Kondratriev N D 1979 The long waves in economic life Review 4 pp 519 – 562.

274. Kondratieff N D 1984 The long wave cycle Richardson & Snyder New York USA.

275. Kondratiev N D 1998a Long cycles of economic conjuncture in The works of Nikolai D Kondratiev Makasheva N, Samuels W J (editors) vol I Pickering & Chatto London UK.

276. Kоndratyev N D 1998b Main problems of economic statics and dynamics Economica Moscow Russian Federation pp 1 – 134.

277. Kondratieff N D 2002 The big cycles of conjuncture and theory of forecast. Selected works Yakovets Yu V, Abalkin L M Economics Publishing House Moscow Russian Federation pp 1 – 767.

278. Polanyi K 1922 Sozialistische Rechnungslegung Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik vol 49 pp 377 – 420.

279. Kitchin J 1923 Cycles and trends in economic factors Review of Economics and Statistics The MIT Press 5 (1) pp 10 – 16 DOI:10.2307/1927031 JSTOR 1927031.

280. De Wolff S 1924 Prosperitats- und Depressionsperioden in Der Lebendige Marxismus Jenssen O (editor) Thuringer Verlagsanstalt Jena Germany pp 13 – 43.

281. De Wolff S 1924, 1999 Phases of prosperity and depression, in Louçã F, Reijnders J (editors) (editors) pp 25 – 44.

282. Kuznets S 1924 Economic system of Dr. Schumpeter M. Sc. Thesis under Prof. Wesley Clair Mitchell Columbia University NY USA.

283. Kuznets S 1929 Random events and cyclical oscillations Journal of the American Statistical Association XXIV 167 pp 258 – 275.

284. Kuznets S 1930a Secular movements in production and prices Ph. D. Thesis under Prof. Wesley Clair Mitchell Columbia University NY USA.

285. Kuznets S 1930b Secular movements in production and prices. Their nature and their bearing upon cyclical fluctuations Houghton Mifflin Boston USA.

286. Kuznets S 1930c Monetary business cycle theory in Germany The Journal of Political Economy XXXVIII 2 pp 125 – 163.

287. Kuznets S 1930d Equilibrium economics and business cycle theory The Quarterly Journal of Economics XLIV 3 pp 381 – 415.

288. Kuznets S 1934 National income, 1929 - 1932 73rd US Congress 2nd Session Senate document no 124 pp 5 – 7 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/scribd/?title_id=971&filepath=/docs/publications/natincome_1934/19340104_nationalinc.pdf .

289. Kuznets S 1937 National income and capital formation, 1919 – 1935.

290. Kuznets S 1940 Schumpeter’s business cycles The American Economic Review vol 30 no 2 Part 1 pp 257 – 271.

291. Kuznets S 1941 National income and its composition, 1919 – 1938.

292. Kuznets S 1954 Economic change Heineman London UK.

293. Kuznets S March 1955 Economic growth and income inequality American Economic Review 45 (1) pp 1 – 28.

294. Kuznets S October 1962 How to judge quality The New Republic.

295. Kuznets S 1963 Quantitative aspects of the economic growth of nations, VIII: The distribution of income by size Economic Development and Cultural Change 11 pp 1 – 92.

296. Kuznets S 1965 Economic growth and structure Norton New York USA.

297. Kuznets S 1966 Modern economic growth: Rate, structure, and spread Yale University Press New Haven Connecticut USA.

298. Kuznets S 1968 Toward a theory of economic growth, with reflections on the economic growth of modern nations.

299. Kuznets S 1971 Economic growth of nations: Total output and production structure.

300. Kuznets S 1973a Population, capital and growth.

301. Kuznets S 1973b Modern economic growth: Findings and reflections American Economic Review 63 pp 247 – 258.

302. Yule G U 1926 Why do we sometimes get nonsense correlations between time series? - A study in sampling and the nature of time-series Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 89 (1) pp 1 – 63 JSTOR 2341482.

303. Ashby F B 1927 Individual cycles in stock prices The Journal of Political Economy XXXV 6 pp 835 – 851.

304. Slutzky E 1927 The summation of random causes as the source of cyclic processes Problems of Economic Conditions vol 3 no 1 pp 105 – 146.

305. Copeland M A 1929 The national income and its distribution in Recent economic changes in the United States, volumes 1 and 2 National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge MA USA pp 761 – 844 ISBN: 0-87014-012-4.

306. Dopsch A 1930 Naturalwirtschaft und Geldwirtschaft in der Weltgeschichte Seidel Wien Austria.

307. Heckscher E 1930 Natural- und Geldwirtschaft in der Geschichte Vierteljahreszeitschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte vol 4 pp 454 – 467.

308. Souter R W 1930 Equilibrium economics and business cycle theory The Quarterly Journal of Economics XLV 1 pp 40 – 93.

309. Wagemann E 1930 Economic rhythm: A theory of business cycles Blelloch D H (translator) McGraw-Hill New York USA.

310. Wilson R May 1930, 22 October 2007 Economic cycles in Australia and New Zealand Economic Record vol 6 issue 1 pp 68 – 88, John Wiley and Sons Inc DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1930.tb01083.x .

311. Hayek F A 1931, 1935, 2008 Prices and production 1st edition Routledge and Sons London UK, 2nd edition Routledge and Kegan Paul London UK, 2008 edition Ludwig von Mises Institute Auburn Alabama USA.

312. Hayek F A von 1933 Monetary theory and the trade cycle Jonathan Cape London UK.

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314. Hayek F A von 1966 Monetary theory and the trade cycle New York USA.

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316. Hayek F A von 2012 The collected works of F A Hayek: Business cycles: Part 1 and 2 The University of Chicago Press Chicago USA ISBN 9780226320441 pp 1 – 304.

317. Funk J M 1932 The 56-year cycle in American Business Activity Ottawa IL USA.

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