Is the United States of America (USA) really being made great again? witty insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Is the United States of America (USA) really being made great again? witty insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach.

Abstract

Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in the United States of America (USA) from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. My diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that US GDP per capita data is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and hence reliable. The results of the study reveal that living standards in the US are likely to sky-rocket over the next decade, especially if the current economic policy stance is to be at least maintained. Indeed, America is being made great again!!!

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Economic growth; GDP; USA
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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