Macroprudential Policy and the Probability of a Banking Crisis

Nakatani, Ryota (2020): Macroprudential Policy and the Probability of a Banking Crisis.

Abstract

The ultimate purpose of macroprudential policy is to avoid financial instability, such as banking crises, which have a long-lasting and devastating effect on the economy. Although a growing number of studies have examined the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth, few empirical studies have analyzed its effect on the probability of a banking crisis. Does macroprudential policy actually affect the probability of a banking crisis? Do other macroeconomic policies matter for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy? To answer these questions, this paper empirically investigates the effect of macroprudential policy on the probability of a banking crisis and its relationship with other macroeconomic policies. Specifically, using data on 65 countries from 2000 to 2016, we employ a probit model to analyze the effect of changes in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on crisis probability. Our results show that macroprudential policy is effective in changing the probability of a banking crisis via a credit channel and that its effectiveness depends on other macroeconomic policies. Changes in the LTV ratio are found to be effective in influencing the probability of a banking crisis in countries that have inflation targeting frameworks, floating exchange rate regimes, and/or no capital controls. Our results underscore the importance of policy coordination among different government bodies to design an appropriate macroprudential policy, especially in the current context of the Covid-19 crisis.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: macroprudential policy; loan-to-value (LTV) ratio; banking crisis; probit model; monetary policy; exchange rate regime; capital control
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F38 - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls; G - Financial Economics > G0 - General > G01 - Financial Crises; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G28 - Government Policy and Regulation; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R38 - Government Policy

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