A Macroeconomic Model of the Russian Economy

Skrypnik, Dmitriy (2016): A Macroeconomic Model of the Russian Economy. Published in: "Economics and the Mathematical Methods" , Vol. 3, (September 2016)

Abstract

The constructed macroeconomic model of Russian economy is presented. The model takes into account the key features of behavioral mechanism, economic policy mechanism, and key structural features of the economy for medium and short periods. We model the budget rule mechanism, consider interaction between the Central Bank and the budget in the context of monetary and budget reserves accumulation, including the process of gold-currency reserves’ accumulation as well as the sterilizing mechanism for state funds formation. Include two different monetary policy rules in the model: domestic credit rule and exchange rate rule. The exchange rate sub-model describes a Balassa—Samuelson effect and terms of trade effect. Our model demonstrates high prognostic power: its model prognostic quality is higher than of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the majority of macroeconomic indicators.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: macroeconomic modeling, error correction model, budget rule, transmission mechanism of monetary policy
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C00 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C10 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C30 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C50 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E40 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E50 - General

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