Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors

Pincheira, Pablo and Hernández, Ana María (2019): Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors.

Abstract

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive ability of the GUF is heterogeneous across countries. In-sample results are statistically significant for Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Ireland, The Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Sweden and United States. Robust statistically significant out-of-sample results are found for Belgium, Czech Republic, France, The Netherlands, Slovenia, Sweden and the United States. This means that the inclusion of the GUF adds valuable information to predict domestic unemployment rates, at least for these last seven countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting, unemployment, international factors, time-series models, out-of-sample comparison, nested models.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C49 - Other; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy; F - International Economics > F0 - General; F - International Economics > F0 - General > F00 - General; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F62 - Macroeconomic Impacts; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F66 - Labor; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J0 - General; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J0 - General > J00 - General; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J0 - General > J01 - Labor Economics: General; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J0 - General > J08 - Labor Economics Policies; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J60 - General; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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