Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models

Meyler, Aidan and Kenny, Geoff and Quinn, Terry (1998): Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models. Published in: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Technical Paper Series , Vol. 1998, No. 3/RT/98 (December 1998): pp. 1-48.

Abstract

This paper outlines the practical steps which need to be undertaken to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models for forecasting Irish inflation. A framework for ARIMA forecasting is drawn up. It considers two alternative approaches to the issue of identifying ARIMA models - the Box Jenkins approach and the objective penalty function methods. The emphasis is on forecast performance which suggests more focus on minimising out-of-sample forecast errors than on maximising in-sample ‘goodness of fit’. Thus, the approach followed is unashamedly one of ‘model mining’ with the aim of optimising forecast performance. Practical issues in ARIMA time series forecasting are illustrated with reference to the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) and some of its major sub-components.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: NAIRU; inflation; unobserved components; kalman filter
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C62 - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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