Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads

Hännikäinen, Jari (2014): Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads.

Abstract

This paper re-examines the out-of-sample predictive power of interest rate spreads when the short-term nominal rates have been stuck at the zero lower bound and the Fed has used unconventional monetary policy. Our results suggest that the predictive power of some interest rate spreads have changed since the beginning of this period. In particular, the term spread has been a useful leading indicator since December 2008, but not before that. Credit spreads generally perform poorly in the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy period. However, the mortgage spread has been a robust predictor of economic activity over the 2003–2014 period.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: business fluctuations; forecasting; interest rate spreads; monetary policy; zero lower bound; real-time data
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies

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