New Frontiers in the Euro Debate in Iceland

Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn (2018): New Frontiers in the Euro Debate in Iceland. Published in: Prosperity through Trade and Structural Reform, Festschrift in Honor of Per Magnus Wijkman. Editors Emil Ems and Thorvaldur Gylfason, Dialogos, Stockholm, (12 October 2018): pp. 199-222.

Abstract

The debate on currency arrangements and monetary policy frameworks in lceland has been motivated by developments in lceland and internationally in recent decades. Historically, lcelanders' colonial experience and struggle to retain control of vital natural resources made them hesitant participants in the European integration process. While sidestepping direct participation in the process leading to EU and EMU membership, they joined EFTA, the EEA and Schengen. Economic growth and development have been rapid, but the modernisation and liberalisation of the economy have been attended by signi:ficant volatility in nominal and real variables. At the same time, the European integration process has continued with its own set of challenges. It is in this context that a vibrant debate has taken place on the choice of currency and associated policies. The main emphasis has been on whether to adopt the euro (through EU membership) or retain the Icelandic króna with the most efficacious monetary policy framework possible. This article offers a review of salient contributions to the debate and the main lessons drawn from it. The key themes of the debate involve the impact currency choice would have on economic growth and resilience to shocks. While the early debate was mostly concerned with trade-theoretic issues, institutional factors have become increasingly important. A new theory concerning a heretofore overlooked policy variable, the evolution of inequality as measured by the wage-productivity gap, is discussed. It is shown to be potentially important for economic and financial outcomes, with implications for the debate.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Currency; exchange rates; monetary stability; financial stability; euro; factor incomes; distribution; wage productivity gap
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E12 - Keynes ; Keynesian ; Post-Keynesian; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E13 - Neoclassical; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E64 - Incomes Policy ; Price Policy; N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations > N12 - U.S. ; Canada: 1913-; N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations > N14 - Europe: 1913-; N - Economic History > N2 - Financial Markets and Institutions > N22 - U.S. ; Canada: 1913-; N - Economic History > N2 - Financial Markets and Institutions > N24 - Europe: 1913-; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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