Economists in the 2008 Financial Crisis: Slow to See, Fast to Act

Levy, Daniel and Mayer, Tamir and Raviv, Alon (2022): Economists in the 2008 Financial Crisis: Slow to See, Fast to Act. Forthcoming in: Journal of Financial Stability (Forthcoming) No. Forthcoming

Abstract

We study the economics and finance scholars’ reaction to the 2008 financial crisis using machine learning language analyses methods of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and dynamic topic modelling algorithms, to analyze the texts of 14,270 NBER working papers covering the 1999–2016 period. We find that academic scholars as a group were insufficiently engaged in crises’ studies before 2008. As the crisis unraveled, however, they switched their focus to studying the crisis, its causes, and consequences. Thus, the scholars were “slow-to-see,” but they were “fast-to-act.” Their initial response to the ongoing Covid-19 crisis is consistent with these conclusions.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: 2008 Financial Crisis; Financial Crises; Economic Crisis; Great Recession; Textual Analysis; LDA Topic Modeling; Dynamic Topic Modeling; Machine Learning; Securitization; Repo; Sudden Stop
• Subjects: A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A11 - Role of Economics ; Role of Economists ; Market for Economists; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C38 - Classification Methods ; Cluster Analysis ; Principal Components ; Factor Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C55 - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F30 - General; G - Financial Economics > G0 - General > G01 - Financial Crises; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G20 - General; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G28 - Government Policy and Regulation

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