Incorporating Market Regimes into Large-Scale Stock Portfolios: A Hidden Markov Model Approach

Ibanez, Francisco and Urga, Giovanni (2024): Incorporating Market Regimes into Large-Scale Stock Portfolios: A Hidden Markov Model Approach.

Abstract

We propose a portfolio construction method that accounts for the regime-dependent behavior of stocks, thereby impacting their expected returns. Using a hidden Markov model (HMM) and a regime-weighted least-squares approach, we estimate forward-looking regime-conditional factors. These factors help build large-scale stock portfolios for systematic investment management, considering financial market regimes. In historical simulations, our framework achieves superior risk-adjusted performance compared to passive portfolios in both relative and absolute management settings.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Regime modeling, portfolio construction, hidden Markov model, least-squares, factor models
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions

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