Разработка модели макроэкономического равновесия с использованием метода системной динамики

Skribans, Valerijs (2010): Разработка модели макроэкономического равновесия с использованием метода системной динамики. Published in: Государственное управление в ХХI веке: традиции и инновации: Материалы 8-ой международной конференции факультета государственного управле , Vol. 2, (2010): pp. 31-44.

Abstract

Development of an economic situation last 20 years has passed in Latvia through various stages. Including - Post-Soviet re-structuring of demand and closing of industrial giants; development of the economy based on transit; development of craft manufacture, small enterprises and branch of services (after joining to EU) and their decline because of transition to the system focused for export of a manpower. In 2009 the following stage of economic development became swept up. Latvia has not sufficed resources for a survival, financing from outside the international community has been requested. Unfortunately, any of the mentioned models is not necessary for the developed countries, therefore it is possible to draw a conclusion that the Latvian economy still is in process of transformation. It is necessary to define possible directions of the further development. In Latvia to estimate economy development, the model of system dynamics which quantitatively analyzes macroeconomic balance is developed. Considering a theme urgency, article purpose - to reflect the developed model. For purpose achievement following problems are put forward: • to reflect model structure, to show its forming blocks; • to prove economic interrelations and assumptions which are accepted in model; • to show model application on an example of separate economic indicators. The model presented in article, has been developed with use of a method of system dynamics. The method is chosen taking into account difficult interaction between macroeconomic processes. It is a unique quantitative method which allows to estimate not only plural causally - investigatory communications, but also their return interaction. Macroeconomic balance is based on feedback in this connection for its analysis, during the long-term period, it is recommended to use a method of system dynamics.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Development of Macroeconomic Equilibrium Model with the System Dynamics Method
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: системная динамика; национальная экономика; модель макроэкономического оборота; потребление; накопления; инвестиции; налоги; занятость
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H50 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C00 - General; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A10 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C50 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E50 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E40 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E20 - General

References

Latvijas ekonomikas stabilizācijas un izaugsmes atjaunošanas programma.- http://www.mk.gov.lv/lv/aktuali/zinas/2008gads/12/12122008-02/ (31.12.2008.)

Sargent, Thomas J. Dynamic macroeconomic theory. USA.: Harvard Uni. Press, 1987.

Skribans, Valerijs (2008): Jauna produkta ievešanas tirgū modelēšana, izmantojot sistēmdinamikas metodi. Published in: RTU Zinātniskie raksti , Vol. ECONOMY: THEORY AND PRACTICE, No. ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS (2008): pp. 99-105.

Skribans, V. (2001): Jaunā ekonomika un jaunie tirgi: pamatprincipi un veidošanās problēmas. Published in: Conference matherials No. 21. gadsimta universitāte (2001): pp. 121-127.

Skribans, Valerijs (2009): Krīzes un 2009. gada nodokļu politikas izmaiņu ietekme uz Latvijas ekonomiku. Published in: LU raksti No. 743. sējums (2009): pp. 189-200.

Skribans, Valerijs (2009): Modelling crediting volume by using the system dynamic method. Published in: Humanities and social sciences: Latvia No. 4(57)/2008 (2009): pp. 114-123.

Skribans, V. (2002): Prognozēšanas metodes uzņēmējdarbībā. Published in: Conference matherials No. Inženierekonomikas nozīme uzņēmējdarbības attīstībā (2002): pp. 37-43.

Sterman, John Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2000.

Turnovsky, Stephen J. Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics. USA.: MIT press, 2000.

Valsts kases mēneša pārskats par konsolidētā kopbudžeta izpildi.- http://www.kase.gov.lv/?object_id=1679 (21.01.2010.)

Wheat, David The Feedback Method of Teaching Macroeconomics: Is it Effective? // The 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society materials, USA, 2007.

Долан Э.Дзк., Линдсей Д. Макроэкономика / Пер. с англ. -СПб., 1994.