Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask

Fantazzini, Dean and Nigmatullin, Erik and Sukhanovskaya, Vera and Ivliev, Sergey (2016): Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. Forthcoming in: Applied Econometrics (2016)

Abstract

Bitcoin is an open source decentralized digital currency and a payment system. It has raised a lot of attention and interest worldwide and an increasing number of articles are devoted to its operation, economics and financial viability. This article reviews the econometric and mathematical tools which have been proposed so far to model the bitcoin price and several related issues, highlighting advantages and limits. We discuss the methods employed to determine the main characteristics of bitcoin users, the models proposed to assess the bitcoin fundamental value, the econometric approaches suggested to model bitcoin price dynamics, the tests used for detecting the existence of financial bubbles in bitcoin prices and the methodologies suggested to study the price discovery at bitcoin exchanges.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Bitcoin, Crypto-currencies, Hash rate, Investors' attractiveness, Social interactions, Money supply, Money Demand, Speculation, Forecasting, Algorithmic trading, Bubble, Price discovery.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E41 - Demand for Money; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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