Guzman, Giselle (2007): Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns. Published in: The Making of National Economic Forecasts No. Edward Elgar Publishing LTD (2009): pp. 319-351.
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This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16 sentiment surveys of distinct respondent universes and employ the technique of principal components analysis to extract the common signals from the surveys. I show that the ability of different population groups to anticipate correctly economic growth and excess stock returns is not identical, implying that not all sentiment is the same, although there exist some common components. I demonstrate that sentiment surveys have significant predictive power for both GDP growth and excess stock returns, and that the results are robust to the inclusion of information pertaining to the macroeconomic environment and momentum. Furthermore, the findings reject the conventional wisdom that the effect of sentiment is apparent exclusively in small-capitalization stocks.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns|
|Keywords:||Sentiment; GDP; economic growth; stock returns; return anomaly; predictability; forecasting; principal components analysis; composite factor; surveys; sentiment factor; econometric models; household sentiment; consumer sentiment; business sentiment; asset pricing; alpha; excess returns; small-capitalization stocks; Efficient Markets Hypothesis; Rational Expectations Hypothesis|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E21 - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D84 - Expectations; Speculations
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs > C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D03 - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C42 - Survey Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics
|Depositing User:||Giselle Guzman|
|Date Deposited:||17. Jul 2012 08:19|
|Last Modified:||15. Feb 2013 08:27|
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