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The case for higher frequency inflation expectations

Guzman, Giselle C. (2010): The case for higher frequency inflation expectations.

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Abstract

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures that are anachronistic in the modern era of high frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to outperform the standard three low frequency survey measures in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality, indicating that there are benefits to using higher frequency measures of inflation expectations. Out of sample forecasts confirm the findings.

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