Does “Okun’s Law” state a Pi:1 ratio? Toward a harmonic interpretation of why Okun’s Law works

Albers, Scott and Albers, Andrew L. (2013): Does “Okun’s Law” state a Pi:1 ratio? Toward a harmonic interpretation of why Okun’s Law works.

Abstract

In Albers & Albers (Spring, 2013) we demonstrated that the historic development of U.S. real GNP, 1869-present, may be structured in recurring 14-year periods. A steady-state rate of growth of 3.4969% is thereby calculated, generating an increase in real GNP proportional to the famous “Golden Mean” (1:phi or 1:1.6180) every fourteen years on average. Building on this foundation we show herein that “Okun’s Law,” a 3:1 proportion between percent growth in real GNP and percent decrease in the rate of unemployment, is actually a pi:1 proportion, created through a form of mathematic / harmonic inverse. The resulting model of economics in the United States is thereby aligned with geometric, harmonic and trigonometric analysis, rather than purely statistical methods.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Pi, Phi, Golden Mean, Okun's Law, United States economic history, GNP Spiral, Kondratiev Wave, Long Wave, trigonometric analysis
• Subjects: A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A10 - General; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B0 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B0 - General > B00 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology > B40 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B50 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B59 - Other; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C00 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C19 - Other; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C50 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; D - Microeconomics > D0 - General; D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles; D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E10 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E13 - Neoclassical; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E19 - Other; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P10 - General; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P16 - Political Economy; Z - Other Special Topics > Z0 - General; Z - Other Special Topics > Z0 - General > Z00 - General

References

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