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Items where Subject is "E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications"

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Number of items at this level: 161.

A

Acuña, Andrés and Oyarzún, Carlos (2005): Money and real fluctuations in the Chilean economy. Published in: Economía y Administración , Vol. 42, No. 65 (December 2005): pp. 55-79.

Akande, Emmanuel (2013): Investment Shocks: Sources of Fluctuations in Small Open Economy. Published in: Economic and Business Review , Vol. 15, No. 3 (October 2013): pp. 213-232.

Albers, Scott and Albers, Andrew L. (2011): The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history. Published in: The Middle East Studies Online Journal , Vol. 3, No. 6 (3. August 2011): pp. 199-253.

Albers, Scott and Albers, Andrew L. (2012): On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev wave.

Alfaro, Rodrigo and Sagner, Andres (2010): Financial Forecast for the Relative Strength Index.

Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano (2009): Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy of Nigeria: A Non-linear Approach.

Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano and Englama, Abwaku (2009): Is Nigeria Ready for Inflation Targeting?

Andreou, A. S. and Zombanakis, George A. and Likothanassis, S. D. and Georgakopoulos, E. (1998): Modeling And Forecasting Exchange-Rate Shocks. Published in: Proceedings of the 60th BNP/Applied Econometrics Association , Vol. 1, No. Special Issue on Financial Instruments and Emerging Markets (6. June 1998): pp. 1-29.

Ardakani, Omid and Kishor, N. Kundan (2014): Examining the Success of the Central Banks in Inflation Targeting Countries: The Dynamics of Inflation Gap and the Institutional Characteristics.

Arora, Vipin (2014): Estimates of the Price Elasticities of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in the United States.

Arora, Vipin and Lieskovsky, Jozef (2013): Natural Gas and U.S. Economic Activity.

Artiach, Miguel (2012): Leverage, skewness and amplitude asymmetric cycles.

Augustyniak, Hanna and Łaszek, Jacek and Olszewski, Krzysztof and Waszczuk, Joanna (2014): Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw. Published in: Ekonomia No. 35 (2014): pp. 5-23.

Ayala, Alfonso (2011): Un modelo de predicción de crisis financieras en los mercados emergentes: 1970 – 2009.

B

Barnett, William A. and Duzhak, Evgeniya (2006): Non-Robust Dynamic Inferences from Macroeconometric Models: Bifurcation Stratification of Confidence Regions.

Barnett, William A. and Duzhak, Evgeniya A. (2008): Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within new Keynesian models.

Barnett, William A. and Duzhak, Evgeniya A. (2014): Structural Stability of the Generalized Taylor Rule.

Barnett, William A. and Eryilmaz, Unal (2012): Hopf bifurcation in the Clarida, Gali, and Gertler model.

Barnett, William A. and Eryilmaz, Unal (2012): An analytical and numerical search for bifurcations in open economy New Keynesian models.

Barnett, William A. and He, Susan (2009): Existence of Singularity Bifurcation in an Euler-Equations Model of the United States Economy: Grandmont was Right.

Belhadj, ARAM and Bouguezzi, WAJDI and Jedlane, NABIL (2009): A Common Monetary Policy For The Maghreb: The Winners and The Losers?

Bell, Peter N (2010): Introduction of the Profit Surface.

Bell, William Paul (2008): Adaptive interactive profit expectations using small world networks and runtime weighted model averaging. Published in: Biomedical Applications of Micro- and Nanoengineering IV and Complex Systems (Proceedings Volume) , Vol. 7270, (30. December 2008)

Bessonovs, Andrejs (2011): GDP Modelling with Factor Model: an Impact of Nested Data on Forecasting Accuracy.

Bezemer, Dirk J (2009): “No One Saw This Coming”: Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models.

Bilgili, Faik (2011): City price convergence in Turkey with structural breaks.

Boschi, Melisso and Girardi, Alessandro (2005): Does one monetary policy fit all? the determinants of inflation in EMU countries. Published in: Current Politics and Economics of Europe , Vol. 1/2, No. 19 (January 2008): pp. 31-62.

Branimir, Jovanovic and Magdalena, Petrovska (2010): Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting. Published in: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia Working Paper (August 2010)

Brissimis, Sophocles and Migiakis, Petros (2011): Inflation persistence and the rationality of inflation expectations.

Bruno, Giancarlo and Malgarini, Marco (2002): An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy.

Buncic, Daniel and Melecky, Martin (2007): An estimated New Keynesian policy model for Australia.

C

Cavallari, Lilia (2012): Markups and Entry in a DSGE Model.

Cebula, Richard (2014): An Investigation into the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Treasury Notes in the U.S.

Chan, Joshua and Koop, Gary and Potter, Simon (2012): A new model of trend inflation.

Chang, Chia-Lin and Franses, Philip Hans and McAleer, Michael (2013): Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

Costa Junior, Celso Jose and Sampaio, Armando Vaz and Gonçalves, Flávio de Oliveria (2012): Income Transfer as Model of Economic Growth. Published in: Revista Economia & Tecnologia , Vol. 8, (2012): pp. 17-32.

Cruz, Christopher John and Mapa, Dennis (2013): An Early Warning System for Inflation in the Philippines Using Markov-Switching and Logistic Regression Models.

D

D'Agostino, A and Surico, P (2007): Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation? Forthcoming in:

D'Agostino, Antonello and McQuinn, Kieran and Whelan, Karl (2011): Are some forecasters really better than others?

D'Amuri, Francesco and Marcucci, Juri (2009): "Google it!" Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index.

D'Ecclesia, Rita Laura and Gallo, Crescenzio (2002): Price-caps and Efficient Pricing for the Electricity Italian Market. Published in: Quaderni del Dipartimento di Matematica Statistica, Informatica ed Applicazioni No. 5 (2002)

Dale, Charles (1990): From Kondratieff to Chaos: Some Perspectives on Long-Term and Short-Term Business Cycles. Published in: Futures Research Quarterly , Vol. 6, No. 4 (1990): pp. 71-83.

Dasgupta, Dipak and Dubey, R.N. and Sathish, R (2011): Domestic Wheat Price Formation and Food Inflation in India. Published in: Working Paper Series, MOF, India No. Working Paper No. 2, 2011 (15. May 2011): pp. 1-58.

Delavari, Majid and Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya and Naderi, Esmaeil (2013): Does long memory matter in forecasting oil price volatility?

Doshchyn, Artur and Giommetti, Nicola (2013): Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles.

Durevall, Dick and Loening, Josef (2009): Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts.

Dybczak, Kamil and Melecky, Martin (2012): EU Fiscal Stance Vulnerability: Are the Old Members the Gold Members?

Dybczak, Kamil and Melecky, Martin (2011): Macroeconomic Shocks and the Fiscal Stance within the EU: A Panel Regression Analysis.

da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira (2005): Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty.

dong, congcong (2006): 世界经济长波导论:对危机与萧条的研究及预测.

E

Engemann, Kristie and Owyang, Michael T. and Wall, Howard J. (2011): Where is an oil shock?

Ermişoğlu, Ergun and Akcelik, Yasin and Oduncu, Arif (2013): GDP Growth and Credit Data.

Escañuela Romana, Ignacio (2011): Empirical Evidence on the Predictability of Stock Market Cycles: the Behaviour of the Dow Jones Index Industrial Average in the Stock Market Crises of 1929, 1987 and 2007.

Everett, Craig R. and Paglia, John K. (2013): Private Businesses Predict Limited Growth for 2013. Published in: Graziadio Business Review , Vol. 16, No. 1 (January 2013)

Everts, Martin (2006): Duration of Business Cycles.

Everts, Martin (2006): Sectoral and Industrial Business Cycles.

Eyler, Robert and Sonora, Robert (2010): Is a National Monetary Policy Optimal?

F

Fabbri, Giorgio and Iacopetta, Maurizio (2007): Dynamic Programming, Maximum Principle and Vintage Capital.

Falnita, Eugen and Sipos, Ciprian (2007): A multiple regression model for inflation rate in Romania in the enlarged EU. Published in: Economic integration, competition and cooperation (1. August 2007)

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza (2012): Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?

Firouzi Naeim, Peyman and Rahimzadeh, golnoush (2013): Inflation Skewness and Price Indexation.

Foresti, Pasquale (2006): Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth.

Francisco, Ramirez (2011): Modelos de Estimación de la Brecha de Producto: Aplicación al PIB de la República Dominicana.

Franco, Ray John Gabriel and Mapa, Dennis S. (2014): The Dynamics of Inflation and GDP Growth: A Mixed Frequency Model Approach.

Freeman, Alan (1997): An endogenous profit rate cycle.

Fry, J. M. (2010): Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices.

G

Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza and Pereira, Ana Luiza Louzada (2005): Um ensaio sobre expectativas da taxa de câmbio no Brasil. Published in: Revista Brasileira de Finanças , Vol. 1, No. 1 (2005): pp. 55-100.

Gao, Xu (2007): Business Cycle Accounting for the Chinese Economy.

Gatt, William (2014): Communicating uncertainty - a fan chart for HICP projections. Published in: Central Bank of Malta Quarterly Review 2014:2 (September 2014): pp. 40-44.

Gatt, William (2013): Forecasting inflation at the Central Bank of Malta. Published in: Central Bank of Malta Quarterly Review 2012 No. 4 (March 2013): pp. 68-71.

Ghent, Andra (2006): Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?

Givens, Gregory and Salemi, Michael (2012): Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state.

Gogas, Periklis and Chionis, Dionisios and Pragkidis, Ioannis (2009): Predicting European Union recessions in the euro era: The yield curve as a forecasting tool of economic activity.

Gutierrez Girault, Matias Alfredo (2008): Modeling extreme but plausible losses for credit risk: a stress testing framework for the Argentine Financial System.

Guzman, Giselle (2007): Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns. Published in: The Making of National Economic Forecasts No. Edward Elgar Publishing LTD (2009): pp. 319-351.

Guzman, Giselle C. (2010): The case for higher frequency inflation expectations.

Guzman, Giselle C. (2009): An inflation expectations horserace.

Guérin, Pierre and Leiva-Leon, Danilo (2014): Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data.

H

Haider, Adnan and Din, Musleh-ud and Ghani, Ejaz (2012): Monetary policy, informality and business cycle fluctuations in a developing economy vulnerable to external shocks.

Haider, Adnan and Hanif, Muhammad Nadeem (2007): Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan using Artificial Neural Networks.

Haider, Adnan and Safdar Ullah, Khan (2008): Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy:Structural and Statistical Approaches. Published in: SBP Research Bulletin , Vol. 4, No. 1 (15. October 2008): pp. 31-60.

Harding, Don and Kam, Timothy (2001): Perspectives on Unemployment from a General Equilibrium Search Model.

Harding, Don and Song, Lei Lei and Tran, Duy (2001): Evaluation of the Australian Industry Group / PricewaterhouseCoopers - Performance of Manufacturing Index (Ai-PMI).

Harin, Alexander (2010): Теорема о существовании разрывов в шкале вероятностей. Дискретный случай.

He, Yijun and Barnett, William A. (2006): Existence of bifurcation in macroeconomic dynamics: Grandmont was right.

Hännikäinen, Jari (2014): The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity.

I

Ichiue, Hibiki and Kurozumi, Takushi and Sunakawa, Takeki (2011): Inflation dynamics and labor market specifications: a Bayesian DSGE approach for Japan's economy.

Isiklar, Gultekin and Lahiri, Kajal and Loungani, Prakash (2006): How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys. Published in: Journal of applied econometrics , Vol. 21, (2006): pp. 703-725.

J

Julio, Juan Manuel (2009): The HPD Fan ChartT With Data Revision.

K

Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar and George, Asish Thomas (2012): An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India. Published in: RBI WORKING PAPER SERIES , Vol. 2013, No. W P S (DEPR): 06 (July 2013): pp. 1-17.

Kim, Insu and Kim, Minsoo (2009): Irrational Bias in Inflation Forecasts.

Kitchen, John and Monaco, Ralph (2003): Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System. Published in: Business Economics , Vol. 38, No. 4 (October 2003): pp. 10-19.

Kitov, Ivan (2009): Apples and oranges: relative growth rate of consumer price indices.

Kitov, Ivan (2007): Exact prediction of inflation and unemployment in Canada.

Kitov, Ivan (2007): Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries.

Kitov, Ivan (2006): The Japanese economy.

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg (2012): Sustainable trends and periodicity in consumer price indices indicate that the era of low energy prices is approaching.

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg (2009): Sustainable trends in producer price indices.

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg (2009): A fair price for motor fuel in the United States.

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg and Dolinskaya, Svetlana (2007): Modelling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration test.

Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg and Dolinskaya, Svetlana (2007): Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test.

Kitov, Ivan and KItov, Oleg (2013): Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan.

Ko, Jun-Hyung (2011): Productivity shocks and housing market inflations in new Keynesian models.

Koop, Gary and Korobilis, Dimitris (2012): Large time-varying parameter VARs.

Korobilis, Dimitris (2011): Hierarchical shrinkage priors for dynamic regressions with many predictors.

Korobilis, Dimitris (2009): VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection.

Kossov, Vladimir and Kossova, Elena (2013): The normal price. The case of the retail price of diesel fuel.

Kreiter, Zebulun and Paul, Tapas Kumar (2010): Deficit Financing and Inflation in Bangladesh: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis. Published in: The Jahangirnagar Economic Review , Vol. 21, (2010): pp. 9-26.

L

Lahiri, Kajal and Liu, Fushang (2005): ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty-a reality check using a panel of density forecasts. Published in: Advances in Econometrics , Vol. 20, (2005): pp. 321-363.

Lanne, Markku and Nyberg, Henri and Saarinen, Erkka (2011): Forecasting U.S. Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series with Noncausal and Causal AR Models: A Comparison.

Lehmann, Robert and Wohlrabe, Klaus (2013): Sectoral gross value-added forecasts at the regional level: Is there any information gain?

M

Mamatzakis, E and Remoundos, P (2010): Threshold Cointegration in BRENT crude futures market.

Marcelle, Chauvet and Simon, Potter (2007): Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks.

Marto, Ricardo (2013): Assessing the Impacts of Non-Ricardian Households in an Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model.

Medel, Carlos A. (2014): Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas.

Melecky, Ales and Melecky, Martin (2012): Vliv makroekonomických šoků na dynamiku vládního dluhu: jak robustní je fiskální pozice České republiky?

Mendoza Lugo, Omar and Pedauga, Luis Enrique (2006): Efecto transferencia (pass-through) del tipo de cambio en los precios de bienes y servicios en Venezuela. Published in: Nueva Economía , Vol. XV, No. 26

Meyler, Aidan and Kenny, Geoff and Quinn, Terry (1998): Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models. Published in: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Technical Paper Series , Vol. 1998, No. 3/RT/98 (December 1998): pp. 1-48.

Meyler, Aidan and Rubene, Ieva (2009): Results of a special questionnaire for participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).

Miguel, Belmonte and Gary, Koop and Dimitris, Korobilis (2011): Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models.

Mukherjee, Deepraj and Kemme, David (2008): Evaluating inflation forecast models for Poland: Openness matters, money does not (but its cost does).

Mulraine, Millan L. B. (2005): Investment-Specific Technology Shocks in a Small Open Economy.

Mulraine, Millan L. B. (2006): Real Exchange Rate Dynamics With Endogenous Distribution Costs.

O

ODIA NDONGO, Yves Francis (2007): Les sources des fluctuations marcoéconomiques au Cameroun.

Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis (2006): Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003.

Olafsdottir, Katrin and Sigurdsson, Kari (2007): Hversu vel tekst til með verðbólguspár greiningardeilda?

Omay, Tolga (2008): The Term Structure of Interest Rate as a Predictor of Inflation and Real Economic Activity: Nonlinear Evidence from Turkey. Forthcoming in:

Osman, Mohammad and Jean Louis, Rosmy and Balli, Faruk (2008): Output gap and inflation nexus: the case of United Arab Emirates. Published in: International Journal of Economics and Business Research , Vol. 1, No. 1 (January 2009): pp. 118-135.

Owyang, Michael T. and Piger, Jeremy and Wall, Howard J. (2012): Forecasting national recessions using state-level data.

P

Pakos, Michal (2013): Long-Run Risk and Hidden Growth Persistence. Published in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , Vol. 37, No. 9 (1. September 2013): 1911-1928.

Palma, Nuno (2013): Did Greenspan Open Pandora's Box? Testing the Taylor Hypothesis and Beyond.

Petreski, Marjan (2013): Assessing the forecasting power of the leading composite index in Macedonia.

Phillips, Kerk L. and Spencer, David E. (2010): Bootstrapping Structural VARs: Avoiding a Potential Bias in Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions. Published in: Journal of Macroeconomics , Vol. 33, No. 4 (2011): pp. 582-594.

Q

Qin, Duo and He, Xinhua (2011): Globalisation effect on inflation in the great moderation era: new evidence from G10 countries.

Quinn, Terry and Kenny, Geoff and Meyler, Aidan (1999): Inflation Analysis: An Overview. Published in: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Technical Paper Series , Vol. 1999, No. 1/RT/1999 (March 1999): pp. 1-22.

R

Rapacciuolo, Ciro (2003): Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana. Published in: CSC Working Paper No. n. 36 - 2003 (June 2003)

Razzak, Weshah and Bentour, E M (2009): Real Interest Rates, Bubbles and Monetary Policy in the GCC countries.

Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas and Naqvi, Bushra (2008): Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan.

Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas and Naqvi, Bushra (2009): Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective.

S

Sen Gupta, Abhijit and Bhattacharya, Rudrani and Rao, Narhari (2014): Understanding Food Inflation in India. Published in: South Asia Working Paper No. No. 26 (May 2014): pp. 1-35.

Shamiri, Ahmed and Shaari, Abu Hassan and Isa, Zaidi (2008): Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing GARCH models.

Shin, Inyong and Kim, Hyunho and Yamamura, Eiji (2008): Technological Progress and the Future of Kuznets Curve's.

Sinha, Pankaj and Gupta, Sushant and Randev, Nakul (2010): Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession.

Skribans, Valerijs (2011): Development of System Dynamic Model of Latvia’s Economic Integration in the EU. Published in: Proceedings of the 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society (2011): pp. 1-16.

Skribans, Valerijs (2012): European Union Economy System Dynamic Model Development. Published in: Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society (2012): pp. 3687-3697.

Skribans, Valerijs (2010): Investments model development with the system dynamic method. Published in: Social Research, Economics and Management: Current Issues and Perspectives , Vol. 2 (18), (2010): pp. 104-114.

Skribans, Valerijs (2010): Latvia’s incoming in European Union economic effect estimation. Published in: BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT AND EDUCATION 2010 No. Contemporary Regional Issues Conference Proceedings (2010)

Skribans, Valerijs (2010): Latvijas iestāšanās Eiropas Savienībā ekonomiskā efekta novērtēšana. Published in: RTU zinātniskie raksti , Vol. 20, No. 3: Ekonomika un uzņēmējdarbiba (2010): pp. 108-116.

Sokolov, Yuri (2010): Business cycle effects on portfolio credit risk: A simple FX Adjustment for a factor model.

Sokolov, Yuri (2009): Interaction between market and credit risk: Focus on the endogeneity of aggregate risk.

Sokolov, Yuri (2012): Modeling risk in a dynamically changing world: from association to causation.

T

Tabata, Katsushi and Kawaguchi, Yuichiro (2013): Real estate prices in Japan and Lewis turning point.

Tausch, Arno (2013): The hallmarks of crisis. A new center-periphery perspective on long cycles.

V

Vitek, Francis (2006): Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach.

Vitek, Francis (2006): Monetary Policy Analysis in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach.

W

Wolters, Maik Hendrik (2012): Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models.

Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling and Puah, Chin-Hong and Abu Mansor, Shazali and Liew, Venus Khim-Sen (2012): Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability.

Y

Yashkir, Olga and Yashkir, Yuriy (2013): Monitoring of Credit Risk through the Cycle: Risk Indicators. Forthcoming in:

Yu, Eric Jinsan (2014): Predictive Power of Aggregate Short Interest.

Z

Zhang, Hewitt and Hu, Yannan and Hu, Bo (2012): House-price crash and macroeconomic crisis: a Hong Kong case study.

Zhang, Tongbin and Hu, Bo (2011): House-Price Crash and Macroeconomic Crisis: A Hong Kong Case Study.

This list was generated on Tue Nov 25 20:06:47 2014 CET.
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