Predicting crises: Five essays on the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises

Albers, Scott (2012): Predicting crises: Five essays on the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises. Published in: Middle East Studies On-line Journal , Vol. Volume, No. Issue 6 (8 August 2011): pp. 199-253.

Abstract

This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic progression of events which may be analyzed according to a set formula. The model proposed demonstrates that the citizen’s individual “consciousness” is writ large in the macro-economic statistics of this unique economy and thereby made available for inspection at other levels of reality.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Fifth dimension; consciousness; unemployment; Okun’s Law; real GNP; crisis; prediction; mathematics; economic history; cycle; Kondratiev wave; long wave; Golden Mean; phi; pi; mathematic ratio; octave; music; political economy wave; Kaluza; General Theory of Relativity; complexity
• Subjects: B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B51 - Socialist ; Marxian ; Sraffian; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B3 - History of Economic Thought: Individuals > B31 - Individuals; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology; N - Economic History > N0 - General > N00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B52 - Institutional ; Evolutionary; N - Economic History > N0 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925 > B24 - Socialist ; Marxist ; Sraffian; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B0 - General; K - Law and Economics > K0 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C00 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling; K - Law and Economics > K0 - General > K00 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B50 - General; D - Microeconomics > D4 - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A10 - General; D - Microeconomics > D0 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology > B40 - General; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B59 - Other; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D00 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology > B41 - Economic Methodology

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